Home Asking Price Index, September 2018: price growth trends towards zero and below
Asking prices in England and Wales fell 0.3% in September 2018, with annual growth slowing to just 0.9% as supply rose 7% year-on-year.
This is the September 2018 edition of the Home Asking Price Index, released on 12 September 2018, under the headline:
Price Growth Trends Towards Zero and Below
The headlines and summary below are the report's own words, with the key figures as it published them, followed by the report's charts and regional tables as printed.
Headlines
- Home prices in England and Wales fell overall by a further 0.3% this month.
- The largest monthly falls were in the South West (-0.7%), London (-0.5%) and the East of England (-0.5%).
- Asking prices in Greater London, the UK's worst performing region, show a 12-month drop of 2.3% and have fallen 5.2% since their peak in May 2016.
- Supply increases indicate a worsening market for vendors: up by 7% year-on-year (YoY) across the UK, with the biggest regional surge in new instructions located in the East of England (+15%).
- The mix-adjusted average price growth for England and Wales slid to a mere 0.9% year-on-year, well below the rate of monetary inflation.
Summary
Home prices fell further this month as the slowdown tightened its grip. Price falls across most English regions have dragged the average for England and Wales down a further 0.3%, and both mean and median marketing times are longer than a year ago. The scale and scope of the downturn are both increasing, in line with our expectations. Consequently, price growth is trending to zero while stock levels are moving up.
In September 2017, the annualised rate of increase of home prices was 3.5%; today the same measure is just 0.9% and is trending down.
Key figures
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Monthly change in asking prices | -0.3% |
| Annual price growth (mix-adjusted) | 0.9% |
| Typical Time on Market | 90 days |
| Change in supply (YoY) | +7% |
| Increase in total stock for sale | +8.8% |
Figures are for England and Wales unless the report states otherwise, as published in the edition.
Charts from the report
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, September 2018
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, September 2018
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, September 2018
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, September 2018
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, September 2018. Note: Average = Mean (days), Typical = Median (days)
Regional tables
UK Asking Prices, Sep-18
| Region | Average Asking Price | Monthly % change | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | £185,831 | 0.4% | 0.9% |
| North East | £157,279 | -0.2% | -0.1% |
| Yorks & The Humber | £195,893 | -0.3% | 3.7% |
| England & Wales | £308,786 | -0.3% | 0.9% |
| North West | £203,537 | 0.5% | 5.0% |
| West Midlands | £248,823 | -0.1% | 5.2% |
| East Midlands | £233,461 | 0.1% | 4.5% |
| East | £360,033 | -0.5% | 0.5% |
| Wales | £203,444 | 0.6% | 6.0% |
| Greater London | £523,911 | -0.5% | -2.3% |
| South East | £400,912 | -0.2% | -1.2% |
| South West | £325,110 | -0.7% | 1.1% |
UK Time on Market, Sep-18
| Region | Average Time on Market | Typical Time on Market | Annual % supply change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 208 | 95 | 6% |
| North East | 222 | 112 | 6% |
| Yorks & The Humber | 166 | 89 | 3% |
| England & Wales | 159 | 90 | 7% |
| North West | 174 | 97 | 1% |
| West Midlands | 135 | 75 | 11% |
| East Midlands | 130 | 75 | 11% |
| East | 123 | 77 | 15% |
| Wales | 217 | 109 | 3% |
| Greater London | 159 | 93 | 2% |
| South East | 128 | 81 | 13% |
| South West | 141 | 82 | 2% |
From the director's commentary
"As they say, 'What goes up must come down,' at least for a while. Good news for buyers but troubling times for vendors, especially those in negative equity."
Doug Shephard, Director at Home.co.uk
Read the full September 2018 edition (PDF, 7 pages)
About the Home Asking Price Index
The Home Asking Price Index measures the change in the prices sellers ask for residential property across England, Wales and Scotland. Today it is computed every month from around half a million advertised homes and is mix-adjusted, so a change in what happens to be on the market does not move the figure; earlier editions state the sample they were built from. Because an asking price is set months before a sale completes, the index runs around five months ahead of completed-sale measures such as the UK House Price Index.
Every edition in the archive, back to October 2006, is listed on the index page. How we measure the UK property market explains the listing data behind it, and today's figures by area are on house prices and rental prices.
Text and figures above are quoted from the September 2018 edition as published, with punctuation normalised for the web, and are not revised. Later editions may restate them.
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