Home Asking Price Index, September 2016: prices slide for third month in a row
Asking prices in England and Wales fell for a third consecutive month in September 2016, with London prices slipping 0.6% and annual growth easing to 4.6%.
This is the September 2016 edition of the Home Asking Price Index, released on 13 September 2016, under the headline:
Prices Slide for Third Month in a Row
The headlines and summary below are the report's own words, with the key figures as it published them, followed by the report's charts and regional tables as printed.
Headlines
- Home prices in London and the South East continue to fall, down a further 0.6% and 0.3% respectively during the last month.
- Supply of property for sale continues to increase in the key regions of London (+13%), East of England (+9%) and the South East (+15%).
- Prices fall in six of the nine English regions, making the overall mix-adjusted average asking price drop 0.2% since last month.
- Typical Time on Market edges up another three days to 89 days over the last month across England and Wales: still four days less than in September 2015.
- The overall rate of home price appreciation for England and Wales falls further to 4.6% (Sept 16 vs. Sept 15).
- The total stock of property on the market continues to increase (since the record low in January) and is now 0.4% more than in September last year.
Summary
Prices continue to fall in Greater London as the market slows down. The once red-hot market in the capital region is cooling rapidly and the Typical Time on Market, at 75 days, is nine days longer than in September 2015. The supply trend remains upward (+13% vs. Sept 15) and we expect further falls over the coming months. Due to price declines over the last four months, the year-on-year price appreciation in Greater London has been eroded to a mere 1.6%. In real terms, taking into account monetary inflation, this is probably closer to zero.
The South East property market registered a third consecutive monthly price fall this month, but prices here are falling much more slowly than in London. Demand and supply in the region remain reasonably balanced as indicated by marketing times which continue to be some of the lowest in the country and have not increased appreciably since last year. However, supply in the region is continuing to rise and this may tip the equilibrium to the downside over coming months.
Key figures
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Average asking price (England & Wales) | £295,813 |
| Monthly change (England & Wales) | -0.2% |
| Annual change (England & Wales) | 4.6% |
| Typical Time on Market (England & Wales) | 89 days |
| Total stock of property change (vs Sept 2015) | +0.4% |
Figures are for England and Wales unless the report states otherwise, as published in the edition.
Charts from the report
Source: Home.co.uk, September 2016
Source: Home.co.uk, September 2016
Source: Home.co.uk, September 2016
Source: Home.co.uk, September 2016. Note: Average = Mean (days), Typical = Median (days)
Regional tables
UK Asking Prices, Sep-16
| Region | Average Asking Price | Monthly % change | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | £178,052 | 0.1% | 5.9% |
| North East | £155,314 | -0.4% | 1.0% |
| Yorks & The Humber | £181,107 | -0.1% | 2.8% |
| England & Wales | £295,813 | -0.2% | 4.6% |
| North West | £186,586 | 0.2% | 3.9% |
| West Midlands | £224,596 | -0.4% | 6.4% |
| East Midlands | £209,321 | 0.0% | 5.0% |
| East | £339,204 | 0.2% | 12.9% |
| Wales | £186,274 | 0.1% | 1.1% |
| Greater London | £534,631 | -0.6% | 1.6% |
| South East | £390,774 | -0.3% | 5.0% |
| South West | £307,100 | 0.0% | 4.8% |
UK Time on Market, Sep-16
| Region | Average Time on Market | Typical Time on Market | Annual % supply change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 211 | 99 | 2% |
| North East | 228 | 118 | -1% |
| Yorks & The Humber | 181 | 101 | -8% |
| England & Wales | 156 | 89 | 0% |
| North West | 187 | 106 | -8% |
| West Midlands | 150 | 85 | -10% |
| East Midlands | 140 | 82 | -7% |
| East | 106 | 64 | 9% |
| Wales | 222 | 122 | -13% |
| Greater London | 117 | 75 | 13% |
| South East | 102 | 65 | 15% |
| South West | 143 | 86 | -2% |
From the director's commentary
"Of course, Brexit came after the above trends were already established, but the uncertainty and negative economic consequences are exacerbating the situation: pruning price rises in some regions and eliciting bigger falls in others. Suffice to say, in the near term, London property investment looks like a good way to lose a lot of money."
Doug Shephard, Director at Home.co.uk
Read the full September 2016 edition (PDF, 6 pages)
About the Home Asking Price Index
The Home Asking Price Index measures the change in the prices sellers ask for residential property across England, Wales and Scotland. Today it is computed every month from around half a million advertised homes and is mix-adjusted, so a change in what happens to be on the market does not move the figure; earlier editions state the sample they were built from. Because an asking price is set months before a sale completes, the index runs around five months ahead of completed-sale measures such as the UK House Price Index.
Every edition in the archive, back to October 2006, is listed on the index page. How we measure the UK property market explains the listing data behind it, and today's figures by area are on house prices and rental prices.
Text and figures above are quoted from the September 2016 edition as published, with punctuation normalised for the web, and are not revised. Later editions may restate them.
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