Home Asking Price Index, September 2013: prices soar as supply crisis worsens in London and the South East
Asking prices across England and Wales rose 0.5% in September, taking annual growth to 5.1% as property supply fell 14% over the year.
This is the September 2013 edition of the Home Asking Price Index, released on 12 September 2013, under the headline:
Prices Soar as Supply Crisis Worsens in London and the South East
The headlines and summary below are the report's own words, with the key figures as it published them, followed by the report's charts and regional tables as printed.
Headlines
- Home prices have leapt by an inflation-busting 5.1% across England and Wales over the last 12 months, the biggest year-on-year rise since January 2008
- Total number of on-market properties has fallen 14% over the last 12 months
- Supply in London has collapsed by 19% over the same period
- The typical time on market for property stands at 111 days, down ten days on September 2012
- Rising vendor confidence is reflected in less price cutting: down by 25% year-on-year
- London property price rises hit double figures: up 10.6% on last year
Summary
The total volume of property for sale across England and Wales has fallen by 14% over the last year and now stands 30% lower than this time five years ago. In most regions, potential vendors are holding back, hence the supply of new property to the sales market continues to diminish. This is the main driver for rising prices. In London and associated regions, property buyers are becoming increasingly frustrated by lack of choice and spiralling prices. The volume of property placed on the market last month was down 56% on the highs of August 2007. In London, where the crisis is most prominent, supply of new property is down by a staggering 74% compared to August 2007.
Asking prices across England and Wales rose another 0.5% in September and now stand 5.1% up on last year, 1.6 percentage points above the current reported rate of inflation. This is the largest annual price growth since January 2008 and is, as the graph below illustrates, the continuation of a recovery that became apparent in early 2012. Home price inflation in 2013 is really accelerating, with average asking prices rising 4.9% in the first nine months alone, reinforcing the impression that the recovery is very much in its infancy
Key figures
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Average Asking Price (England & Wales) | £243,703 |
| Monthly change | 0.5% |
| Annual change | 5.1% |
| Typical Time on Market | 111 days |
| Fall in total properties for sale (12 months) | 14% |
| Fall in price reductions (year-on-year) | 25% |
| Fall in new supply vs 2007 | -56% |
| New properties placed on market last month | 101,000 |
Figures are for England and Wales unless the report states otherwise, as published in the edition.
Charts from the report
Source: Home.co.uk, September 2013
Source: Home.co.uk, September 2013
Source: Home.co.uk, September 2013
Regional tables
UK Asking Prices, Sep-13
| Region | Average Asking Price | Monthly % change | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | £160,673 | -0.2% | 0.3% |
| North East | £153,178 | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| Yorks & The Humber | £169,495 | 0.0% | 1.2% |
| England & Wales | £243,703 | 0.5% | 5.1% |
| North West | £173,520 | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| West Midlands | £194,842 | 0.3% | 3.8% |
| East Midlands | £181,200 | 0.5% | 3.8% |
| East | £258,429 | 0.7% | 4.1% |
| Wales | £176,447 | 0.0% | 1.6% |
| Greater London | £392,366 | 0.9% | 10.5% |
| South East | £313,531 | 0.5% | 6.5% |
| South West | £266,030 | 0.4% | 4.5% |
From the director's commentary
"These regional supply dynamics suggest that the bipolar nature of the UK property market is only going to get worse. Starved of new and resale stock, pricing in the London and South East property markets looks set to go ballistic."
Doug Shephard, Director at Home.co.uk
Read the full September 2013 edition (PDF, 5 pages)
About the Home Asking Price Index
The Home Asking Price Index measures the change in the prices sellers ask for residential property across England, Wales and Scotland. Today it is computed every month from around half a million advertised homes and is mix-adjusted, so a change in what happens to be on the market does not move the figure; earlier editions state the sample they were built from. Because an asking price is set months before a sale completes, the index runs around five months ahead of completed-sale measures such as the UK House Price Index.
Every edition in the archive, back to October 2006, is listed on the index page. How we measure the UK property market explains the listing data behind it, and today's figures by area are on house prices and rental prices.
Text and figures above are quoted from the September 2013 edition as published, with punctuation normalised for the web, and are not revised. Later editions may restate them.
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