Home Asking Price Index, October 2013: recovery spreads north and west as London's bubble expands
House prices in England and Wales rose 1.0% in the month, up 5.5% year on year, while new stock listings fell 18% compared with last year.
This is the October 2013 edition of the Home Asking Price Index, released on 15 October 2013, under the headline:
Recovery Spreads North and West as London's Bubble Expands
The headlines and summary below are the report's own words, with the key figures as it published them, followed by the report's charts and regional tables as printed.
Headlines
- London's burning: prices are up another 2% on last month and now stand a staggering 12% higher than 12 months ago
- Compared to October 2012, the typical time on market has fallen across every English region, Scotland and Wales
- House prices in England and Wales are now up 5.5% on last year, exceeding the current RPI (exc. housing) rate of 3.7%
- The North East, North West and Scotland were the only parts of the UK not to record price rises in the last month
- The supply of property for sale across England and Wales is down 18% on last year
Summary
As the market prepares for the Help to Buy [H2B] scheme, house prices have risen yet again contrary to seasonal expectations. In the last month, prices in England and Wales have risen a further 1%, the largest monthly rise since May 2011. London and the South East still continue to show strong growth and more areas of the UK are contributing to the recovery. Scotland is now the only area of the UK that is still recording house price deflation (-1.4%) over the last 12 months.
The imbalance between demand and supply continues to dominate the market dynamic. The supply of fresh property stock across England and Wales has contracted by a further 18%, and in London new stock is down by an alarming 31% compared to last year. Growing demand from buyers chasing ever fewer properties has driven down the typical time on market by an average of 8% over the last 12 months. However, the recent price rises being recorded across the majority of the UK still conceal the bipolar nature of the market. Over the last five years, prices across England and Wales have risen 3.4%, whereas four out of nine English regions, plus Scotland and Wales, have shown price falls over the same time period.
Key figures
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Average asking price (England & Wales) | £246,067 |
| Monthly change (England & Wales) | 1.0% |
| Annual change (England & Wales) | 5.5% |
| Supply of new stock, England & Wales, year-on-year | -18% |
| Typical time on market, year-on-year change | -8% |
| RPI (exc. housing) | 3.7% |
| HAPI index (England & Wales, May04=100) | 105 |
Figures are for England and Wales unless the report states otherwise, as published in the edition.
Charts from the report
Source: Home.co.uk, October 2013
Source: Home.co.uk, October 2013
Source: Home.co.uk, October 2013
Regional tables
UK Asking Prices, Oct-13
| Region | Average Asking Price | Monthly % change | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | £159,591 | -0.7% | -1.4% |
| North East | £153,207 | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| Yorks & The Humber | £169,527 | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| England & Wales | £246,067 | 1.0% | 5.5% |
| North West | £173,227 | -0.2% | 1.2% |
| West Midlands | £196,474 | 0.8% | 3.5% |
| East Midlands | £182,263 | 0.6% | 4.0% |
| East | £260,833 | 0.9% | 4.3% |
| Wales | £176,808 | 0.2% | 1.5% |
| Greater London | £400,096 | 2.0% | 11.7% |
| South East | £317,566 | 1.3% | 7.0% |
| South West | £268,253 | 0.8% | 4.6% |
From the director's commentary
"Looking at the current market dynamics, demand is already outpacing the overall supply of properties for sale and pushing prices upwards. The growth in cheaper borrowing is feeding this demand and the Help to Buy scheme is likely to worsen the growing supply-demand imbalance."
Doug Shephard, Director at Home.co.uk
Read the full October 2013 edition (PDF, 5 pages)
About the Home Asking Price Index
The Home Asking Price Index measures the change in the prices sellers ask for residential property across England, Wales and Scotland. Today it is computed every month from around half a million advertised homes and is mix-adjusted, so a change in what happens to be on the market does not move the figure; earlier editions state the sample they were built from. Because an asking price is set months before a sale completes, the index runs around five months ahead of completed-sale measures such as the UK House Price Index.
Every edition in the archive, back to October 2006, is listed on the index page. How we measure the UK property market explains the listing data behind it, and today's figures by area are on house prices and rental prices.
Text and figures above are quoted from the October 2013 edition as published, with punctuation normalised for the web, and are not revised. Later editions may restate them.
More in What is happening to house prices: the Home guide
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