Home Asking Price Index, October 2012: sellers' optimism gives prices a fillip
Asking prices in England and Wales rose 0.6% in the month and 2.2% year on year, with London prices up 5% over the last year.
This is the October 2012 edition of the Home Asking Price Index, released on 12 October 2012, under the headline:
Sellers' Optimism Gives Prices a Fillip
The headlines and summary below are the report's own words, with the key figures as it published them, followed by the report's charts and regional tables as printed.
Headlines
- Asking prices for homes on the market in England and Wales have jumped 0.6% since September, inflated by a seasonal surge in new listings.
- Asking prices rose in 8 of the 9 English regions, Scotland and Wales over the last month. Greater London prices up 5% over last year.
- Supply to market of properties for sale down 3.4% year-on-year.
- Time on Market (average) remains unchanged since September at 215 days, 5 days longer than in October 2011.
- UK detached home prices: stable, rising and look set to make new highs.
- Annual change in asking prices: +2.2%
- 6-month change: +1.3%
Summary
Asking prices have risen since September and this previously observed trend is part of a common seasonal pattern. Following the summer break, estate agents' portfolios are swelled by a surge of properties which are often priced over-optimistically. Moreover, what usually follows is a steady price decline through to January and February. However, overall, it is clear that UK property is on a rising trend and hence the anticipated seasonal decline in the average UK asking price may be more muted over the coming months.
Greater London and the South East continue to outperform the rest of the UK both in price rises and sub-100 day typical marketing times. Moreover, these are the only two regions where prices are rising ahead of inflation (vs. RPI ex. housing). The government 'funding for lending' scheme, which has been in effect since June, is seemingly not having the desired effect on other regions. Indeed, any increase in mortgage funding is likely to enter the more healthy regional property markets where risk to the lender is lower. Reports of misallocation of these BoE funds such as in the FT, "Britain's banks have taken advantage of the government's 'funding for lending' initiative, giving them access to cheap money, to buy back billions of pounds in debt issued to investors." also give cause for concern.
Key figures
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Average asking price (England & Wales) | £233,216 |
| Annual change in asking prices | +2.2% |
| 6-month change in asking prices | +1.3% |
| Monthly change in asking prices | +0.6% |
| Typical Time on Market | 121 days |
| Average Time on Market | 215 days |
| Change in supply of properties for sale | -3.4% |
| HAPI index (England & Wales) | 99.6 |
Figures are for England and Wales unless the report states otherwise, as published in the edition.
Charts from the report
Laspeyres Index based on Weighted Arithmetic Mean of Weighted Arithmetic Mean of Regional House Prices. [May04 = 100]
Laspeyres Indices based on Weighted Arithmetic Mean of Regional House Prices [May04 = 100]
Laspeyres Index based on Weighted Arithmetic Mean of Regional House Prices [May04 = 100]
Laspeyres Index based on Weighted Arithmetic Mean of Regional House Prices [May04 = 100]
Laspeyres Index based on Weighted Arithmetic Mean of Regional House Prices [May04 = 100]
Source: HM Land Registry
Regional tables
Regional asking prices for October 2012, showing gains and losses since October 2011 and current typical
| Current average price | 12-month change | Median ToM (days) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greater London | £358,297 | +5.0% | 90 |
| South East | £296,929 | +3.3% | 93 |
| East Anglia | £250,105 | +2.7% | 102 |
| South West | £256,453 | +2.2% | 107 |
| East Midlands | £175,234 | +1.5% | 121 |
| West Midlands | £189,743 | +1.0% | 126 |
| Wales | £174,191 | +0.5% | 159 |
| Yorkshire and Humber | £168,500 | +0.2% | 157 |
| North East | £152,649 | 0.0% | 177 |
| Scotland | £161,861 | -0.2% | 143 |
| North West | £171,228 | -1.4% | 148 |
| England & Wales | £233,216 | +2.2% | 121 |
time on market.
Read the full October 2012 edition (PDF, 13 pages)
About the Home Asking Price Index
The Home Asking Price Index measures the change in the prices sellers ask for residential property across England, Wales and Scotland. Today it is computed every month from around half a million advertised homes and is mix-adjusted, so a change in what happens to be on the market does not move the figure; earlier editions state the sample they were built from. Because an asking price is set months before a sale completes, the index runs around five months ahead of completed-sale measures such as the UK House Price Index.
Every edition in the archive, back to October 2006, is listed on the index page. How we measure the UK property market explains the listing data behind it, and today's figures by area are on house prices and rental prices.
Text and figures above are quoted from the October 2012 edition as published, with punctuation normalised for the web, and are not revised. Later editions may restate them.
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