Home Asking Price Index, November 2021: overheated prices dip but stock levels slide further
Asking prices in England and Wales fell for the first time since December 2020, while unsold stock hit a fresh record low of 246,891 properties.
This is the November 2021 edition of the Home Asking Price Index, released on 12 November 2021, under the headline:
Overheated Prices Dip but Stock Levels Slide Further
The headlines and summary below are the report's own words, with the key figures as it published them, followed by the report's charts and regional tables as printed.
Headlines
- Asking prices across England and Wales have fallen this month for the first time since Dec 2020, taking the annualised average growth down to 6.7%. The greatest price corrections were in the South West (-1.2%) and the North East (-1.0%).
- Surging inflation looks set to take real home price growth to zero by next month.
- The total stock of property for sale in England and Wales has dropped again to a new record low of 246,891, 42.31% lower than in November 2020 and 49.2% less than in November 2018.
- Monthly supply of new instructions remains low across the UK (-26% compared to the month of October 2020). Greater London and the South East show the greatest contractions (38% and 34% respectively).
- The market retains considerable momentum since our October report with the Typical Time on Market for unsold property in England and Wales remaining at 80 days, contrary to seasonal expectations of a slowdown.
- Low supply and considerable residual demand continue to support prices overall despite this month's correction. Greater London indicates a small rise of 0.1% since last month.
Summary
Our forecast is that prices and rents will continue to rise overall due to the vast amount of recent credit expansion. A significant loosening of supply in the near term appears unlikely, and any sort of significant mortgage rate hikes look impossible given the indebtedness of government and the private sector alike (See Comment section).
The annualised mix-adjusted average asking price growth across England and Wales edged down to +6.7% this month; in November 2020, the annualised rate of increase of home prices was 4.5% and in a rising trend.
Key figures
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Average asking price annual growth | +6.7% |
| Monthly asking price change | -0.4% |
| Total unsold stock (England & Wales) | 246,891 |
| Typical Time on Market | 80 days |
| New instructions (UK, YoY) | -26% |
| Average asking rent growth (UK, YoY) | +6.5% |
| Stock change vs Nov 2020 | -42.31% |
| Stock change vs May 2008 peak | -71.2% |
Figures are for England and Wales unless the report states otherwise, as published in the edition.
Charts from the report
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, November 2021, Indexed to May 2004 (Value=100).
Source: ONS and Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, November 2021 (RPI for October and November 2021 are our estimates).
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, November 2021
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, November 2021
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, November 2021. Average = Mean (days), Typical = Median (days).
Regional tables
UK Asking Prices, Nov-21
| Region | Average Asking Price | Monthly % change | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | £209,893 | -0.3% | 2.4% |
| North East | £177,536 | -1.0% | 3.6% |
| Yorks & The Humber | £229,844 | -0.6% | 3.0% |
| England & Wales | £344,239 | -0.4% | 6.7% |
| North West | £240,007 | -0.6% | 5.6% |
| West Midlands | £284,756 | 0.2% | 6.8% |
| East Midlands | £273,576 | -0.5% | 9.9% |
| East | £397,288 | -0.2% | 11.2% |
| Wales | £244,347 | -0.4% | 6.9% |
| Greater London | £549,636 | 0.1% | 3.8% |
| South East | £442,701 | -0.8% | 7.4% |
| South West | £363,232 | -1.2% | 8.8% |
UK Time on Market, Nov-21
| Region | Average Time on Market | Typical Time on Market | 2 year % supply change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 234 | 71 | 6% |
| North East | 197 | 73 | 3% |
| Yorks & The Humber | 150 | 63 | -2% |
| England & Wales | 181 | 80 | -2% |
| North West | 167 | 73 | -6% |
| West Midlands | 164 | 71 | -6% |
| East Midlands | 133 | 56 | -1% |
| East | 156 | 67 | -5% |
| Wales | 178 | 71 | -2% |
| Greater London | 201 | 102 | 18% |
| South East | 174 | 77 | -8% |
| South West | 168 | 68 | -4% |
From the director's commentary
"Last month I mentioned that, when measured in real terms, house prices are already going backwards in two English regions and Scotland. Now it's three English regions and Scotland."
Doug Shephard, Director at Home.co.uk
Read the full November 2021 edition (PDF, 8 pages)
About the Home Asking Price Index
The Home Asking Price Index measures the change in the prices sellers ask for residential property across England, Wales and Scotland. Today it is computed every month from around half a million advertised homes and is mix-adjusted, so a change in what happens to be on the market does not move the figure; earlier editions state the sample they were built from. Because an asking price is set months before a sale completes, the index runs around five months ahead of completed-sale measures such as the UK House Price Index.
Every edition in the archive, back to October 2006, is listed on the index page. How we measure the UK property market explains the listing data behind it, and today's figures by area are on house prices and rental prices.
Text and figures above are quoted from the November 2021 edition as published, with punctuation normalised for the web, and are not revised. Later editions may restate them.
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