Home Asking Price Index, November 2019: property supply drops in both sales and rentals
UK property supply fell across both sales and lettings in November 2019, with sales stock down 8.0% and rental supply down 14% year-on-year, while annual price growth stood at 0.0%.
This is the November 2019 edition of the Home Asking Price Index, released on 14 November 2019, under the headline:
Property Supply Drops in Both Sales and Rentals
The headlines and summary below are the report's own words, with the key figures as it published them, followed by the report's charts and regional tables as printed.
Headlines
- The supply of new sales instructions is down 10% across the UK as potential vendors fail to commit amidst Brexit malaise (only the North West and Yorkshire have been spared the drought thus far).
- Worst hit is London where stock levels have crashed (-24% year-on-year) and new instructions are down a massive 30% (Oct 19 vs. Oct 18).
- The current sales supply shortage serves to support prices, with some potential vendors opting to rent their properties in the vibrant lettings market rather than sell.
- However, demand is outstripping supply in the rental sector as the supply of newly available rental property falls across the UK (down 14% year-on-year).
- The London and Welsh lettings markets are worst hit by the supply drop (both down 27% year-on-year).
- Overall, sales prices slipped 0.3% during the last month across England and Wales (in line with seasonal expectations)
Summary
As we head towards the end of 2019, it is clear that the regional markets have evolved significantly over the twelve months according to where they are positioned in the property cycle. National average figures mask the stark cyclical disparity of the economics of buying and selling property across the UK.
Extraordinary circumstances produce extraordinary market behaviour. Ultra-low mortgage rates combined with a vibrant rental market means that, for many potential vendors, it makes sense not to sell. Moreover, the prevailing Brexit uncertainty creates extra caution among wannabe buyers and sellers, especially in London, hampering even further the supply of sales properties and increasing rental demand. Sales supply is down in most regions but, quite remarkably, so too is the supply of rental properties.
Key figures
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Annual price change (England and Wales) | +0.0% |
| Monthly price change (England and Wales) | -0.3% |
| Sales stock change (England and Wales) | -8.0% |
| New sales instructions change (UK) | -10% |
| Rental supply change (UK) | -14% |
Figures are for England and Wales unless the report states otherwise, as published in the edition.
Charts from the report
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, November 2019, Indexed to May 2004 (Value =100).
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, November 2019
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, November 2019
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, November 2019. Note: Average = Mean (days), Typical = Median (days)
Regional tables
UK Asking Prices, Nov-19
| Region | Average Asking Price | Monthly % change | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | £208,895 | 0.0% | 2.2% |
| North East | £160,065 | -0.4% | 2.1% |
| Yorks & The Humber | £203,371 | -0.1% | 2.8% |
| England & Wales | £308,625 | -0.3% | 0.0% |
| North West | £208,895 | 0.0% | 2.2% |
| West Midlands | £254,718 | -0.5% | 1.5% |
| East Midlands | £349,622 | -0.5% | -2.2% |
| East | £349,622 | -0.5% | -2.2% |
| Wales | £393,994 | -0.6% | -1.5% |
| Greater London | £516,765 | 0.0% | -0.7% |
| South East | £393,994 | -0.6% | -1.5% |
| South West | £393,994 | -0.6% | -1.5% |
UK Time on Market, Nov-19
| Region | Average Time on Market | Typical Time on Market | Annual % supply change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 225 | 109 | -3% |
| North East | 232 | 121 | -2% |
| Yorks & The Humber | 171 | 93 | 0% |
| England & Wales | 171 | 93 | 0% |
| North West | 182 | 103 | 1% |
| West Midlands | 155 | 89 | -2% |
| East Midlands | 155 | 93 | -13% |
| East | 155 | 93 | -13% |
| Wales | 159 | 93 | -13% |
| Greater London | 194 | 106 | -30% |
| South East | 159 | 93 | -13% |
| South West | 159 | 93 | -13% |
From the director's commentary
"Expect more of the same in 2020 and the return of domestic investors into the London market as yields soar. Home prices will follow and then starts the next property boom…"
Doug Shephard, Director at Home.co.uk
Read the full November 2019 edition (PDF, 7 pages)
About the Home Asking Price Index
The Home Asking Price Index measures the change in the prices sellers ask for residential property across England, Wales and Scotland. Today it is computed every month from around half a million advertised homes and is mix-adjusted, so a change in what happens to be on the market does not move the figure; earlier editions state the sample they were built from. Because an asking price is set months before a sale completes, the index runs around five months ahead of completed-sale measures such as the UK House Price Index.
Every edition in the archive, back to October 2006, is listed on the index page. How we measure the UK property market explains the listing data behind it, and today's figures by area are on house prices and rental prices.
Text and figures above are quoted from the November 2019 edition as published, with punctuation normalised for the web, and are not revised. Later editions may restate them.
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