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Home Asking Price Index, November 2017: don't panic, stock levels are low and demand persistent
England and Wales asking prices fell 0.2% month on month in November 2017, though annual growth held at 3.0% amid historically low stock levels.
- Monthly change in average price (England & Wales)
- -0.2%
- Annual change in average price (England & Wales)
- 3.0%
- Typical Time on Market (England & Wales)
- 89 days
- Total stock change (England & Wales, YoY)
- -1%
In this article
This is the November 2017 edition of the Home Asking Price Index, released on 14 November 2017, under the headline:
Don't Panic: Stock Levels are Low and Demand Persistent
The headlines and summary below are the report's own words, with the key figures as it published them, followed by the report's charts and regional tables as printed.
Headlines
- The East and West Midlands together continue to lead the regional growth tables with annualised gains of 6.8% and 5.8% respectively, with the North West and Yorkshire not far behind.
- Strong regional growth continues, particularly in the Midlands and the North West, but, despite this, the average home price for England and Wales declined by 0.2% month-on-month dragged down by falls in London, the East, the South East and the South West.
- The Greater London slowdown worsens: the latest Typical Time on Market indicates the highest November reading for five years.
- Greater London prices slid for a fourth consecutive month, by 0.4%, pushing the year-on-year (YoY) change further into negative territory (-0.9%), while rents fell by 3.2% over the same period.
- Rents have risen most quickly in Wales, the North West, the East Midlands and the West Midlands over the last 12 months.
- Typical Time on Market for England and Wales remains unchanged at 89 days, three days less than in Nov 2016.
- The total stock of properties on the market in England and Wales is down slightly by 1% YoY.
Summary
Falling London prices and seasonal factors are weighing heavily on the national average, despite continued price growth in the country's most vigorous regional property markets (both the East and West Midlands and the North West). In fact, over the last month prices fell in six of the nine English regions and in Scotland and Wales. Home value depreciation in and around London continues but is by no means calamitous. Prices in the capital region have now been sliding for four consecutive months, consistent with a period of post-boom stagflatory malaise.
Indeed, with non-housing inflation running at around 4.5% (RPI) and the national average price gain at 3.0%, the overall picture is arguably one of stagflation. Five out of the nine English regions register annualised growth at or below the current RPI ex-housing figure. Moreover, it's not merely growth in capital value that lags behind inflation; rents across mainland UK are stagnant showing no change over the last 12 months. On a regional level the picture is mixed but landlords in London and the South East are the worst affected with the average rent declining by 3.2% and 1.2% respectively.
Key figures
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Monthly change in average price (England & Wales) | -0.2% |
| Annual change in average price (England & Wales) | 3.0% |
| Typical Time on Market (England & Wales) | 89 days |
| Total stock change (England & Wales, YoY) | -1% |
Figures are for England and Wales unless the report states otherwise, as published in the edition.
Charts from the report
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, November 2017
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, November 2017
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, November 2017
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, November 2017
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, November 2017
Source: ONS and Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, November 2017
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, November 2017
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, November 2017. Note: Average = Mean (days), Typical = Median (days)
Regional tables
UK Asking Prices, Nov-17
| Region | Average Asking Price | Monthly % change | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | £182,398 | -0.8% | 1.3% |
| North East | £156,286 | -0.9% | 1.1% |
| Yorks & The Humber | £189,020 | -0.3% | 4.7% |
| England & Wales | £306,667 | -0.2% | 3.0% |
| North West | £195,674 | 0.2% | 4.8% |
| West Midlands | £239,269 | 0.2% | 5.8% |
| East Midlands | £225,798 | 0.2% | 6.8% |
| East | £360,527 | -0.2% | 4.5% |
| Wales | £191,363 | -0.4% | 2.8% |
| Greater London | £532,840 | -0.4% | -0.9% |
| South East | £406,274 | -0.3% | 3.0% |
| South West | £322,904 | -0.6% | 4.5% |
UK Time on Market, Nov-17
| Region | Average Time on Market | Typical Time on Market | Annual % supply change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 229 | 109 | -9% |
| North East | 234 | 120 | -9% |
| Yorks & The Humber | 176 | 99 | -8% |
| England & Wales | 157 | 89 | -3% |
| North West | 177 | 101 | -10% |
| West Midlands | 142 | 80 | -9% |
| East Midlands | 133 | 77 | -2% |
| East | 111 | 68 | 9% |
| Wales | 232 | 128 | -12% |
| Greater London | 138 | 84 | 1% |
| South East | 118 | 72 | 2% |
| South West | 140 | 79 | -2% |
From the director's commentary
"Current evidence suggests that prices in and around the capital are more likely to go sideways than down. There are several factors that support this view of the near term."
Doug Shephard, Director at Home.co.uk
Read the full November 2017 edition (PDF, 7 pages)
About the Home Asking Price Index
The Home Asking Price Index measures the change in the prices sellers ask for residential property across England, Wales and Scotland. Today it is computed every month from around half a million advertised homes and is mix-adjusted, so a change in what happens to be on the market does not move the figure; earlier editions state the sample they were built from. Because an asking price is set months before a sale completes, the index runs around five months ahead of completed-sale measures such as the UK House Price Index.
Every edition in the archive, back to October 2006, is listed on the index page. How we measure the UK property market explains the listing data behind it, and today's figures by area are on house prices and rental prices.
Text and figures above are quoted from the November 2017 edition as published, with punctuation normalised for the web, and are not revised. Later editions may restate them.
