Home Asking Price Index, November 2016: home prices feel a winter chill
England and Wales asking prices stayed flat in November as annual growth slowed to 3.8% and supply rose sharply across London and the South East.
This is the November 2016 edition of the Home Asking Price Index, released on 15 November 2016, under the headline:
Home Prices Feel a Winter Chill
The headlines and summary below are the report's own words, with the key figures as it published them, followed by the report's charts and regional tables as printed.
Headlines
- Average home price remains unchanged since October as the market cools.
- Prices fell in six of the nine English regions and Wales but not in Scotland.
- Greater London is currently the UK's worst performing region with prices rising just 0.2% over the last twelve months.
- In a contrarian move, Scottish prices jumped 0.8% over the last month taking the annualised increase to 5.9%.
- East of England also shows an exceptional rise of 0.6% making the annualised gain 10.6% in the region.
- Supply of property for sale continues to increase in the key regions of London (+14%), East of England (+14%) and the South East (+15%) (Oct 16 vs. Oct 15).
- Typical Time on Market edges up just one day to 92 days over the last month across England and Wales: six days less than in November 2015.
- The overall rate of home price appreciation for England and Wales slips to 3.8% (Nov 16 vs. Nov 15).
- The total stock of property on the market has again dropped back slightly since last month and is currently 1.7% more than in November last year.
Summary
Overall, the UK property market continues to cool. Most regions registered small average price declines this month, partly in line with seasonal expectations, with the exception of Scotland and the East of England. The largest monthly price drops were in the North East (0.6%) and Yorkshire (0.5%). Last month's price jump has failed to show any real momentum and consequently prices have slipped in most regions despite further post-Brexit stimulus by the Bank of England.
Meanwhile, vendors continue to increase the supply of property for sale in the key regions of London (+14%), East of England (+14%) and the South East (+15%) (Oct 16 vs. Oct 15). Moreover, as we suggested last month, a rise in demand to match appears unlikely as we head into the slower part of the property year. The London market now has around 23% more properties than there were twelve months ago, with prices going nowhere and the typical marketing time now 17% higher than in November 2015.
Key figures
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Average asking price (England & Wales) | £297,803 |
| Monthly change (England & Wales) | 0.0% |
| Annual change (England & Wales) | 3.8% |
| Typical Time on Market | 92 days |
| Total stock change vs last year | +1.7% |
Figures are for England and Wales unless the report states otherwise, as published in the edition.
Charts from the report
Source: Home.co.uk, November 2016
Source: Home.co.uk, November 2016
Source: Home.co.uk, November 2016
Source: Home.co.uk, November 2016
Source: Home.co.uk, November 2016. Note: Average = Mean (days), Typical = Median (days)
Regional tables
UK Asking Prices, Nov-16
| Region | Average Asking Price | Monthly % change | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | £180,002 | 0.8% | 5.9% |
| North East | £154,607 | -0.6% | 0.9% |
| Yorks & The Humber | £180,594 | -0.5% | 2.6% |
| England & Wales | £297,803 | 0.0% | 3.8% |
| North West | £186,725 | 0.0% | 3.9% |
| West Midlands | £226,074 | 0.2% | 6.4% |
| East Midlands | £211,503 | 0.1% | 5.5% |
| East | £345,109 | 0.6% | 10.6% |
| Wales | £186,205 | -0.2% | 0.8% |
| Greater London | £537,490 | -0.2% | 0.2% |
| South East | £394,448 | -0.1% | 3.8% |
| South West | £309,064 | 0.0% | 4.8% |
UK Time on Market, Nov-16
| Region | Average Time on Market | Typical Time on Market | Annual % supply change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 224 | 114 | -9% |
| North East | 234 | 126 | -2% |
| Yorks & The Humber | 187 | 108 | -8% |
| England & Wales | 160 | 92 | 1% |
| North West | 192 | 109 | -8% |
| West Midlands | 153 | 87 | -5% |
| East Midlands | 143 | 83 | -8% |
| East | 108 | 63 | 14% |
| Wales | 232 | 135 | -12% |
| Greater London | 121 | 74 | 14% |
| South East | 106 | 65 | 15% |
| South West | 146 | 87 | -4% |
From the director's commentary
"The post-crisis story of the UK property market continues to play out. Ultra-low interest rates pushed up prices in London to extreme levels and the downturn that began in Prime Central London has now spread across the entire Greater London area."
Doug Shephard, Director at Home.co.uk
Read the full November 2016 edition (PDF, 6 pages)
About the Home Asking Price Index
The Home Asking Price Index measures the change in the prices sellers ask for residential property across England, Wales and Scotland. Today it is computed every month from around half a million advertised homes and is mix-adjusted, so a change in what happens to be on the market does not move the figure; earlier editions state the sample they were built from. Because an asking price is set months before a sale completes, the index runs around five months ahead of completed-sale measures such as the UK House Price Index.
Every edition in the archive, back to October 2006, is listed on the index page. How we measure the UK property market explains the listing data behind it, and today's figures by area are on house prices and rental prices.
Text and figures above are quoted from the November 2016 edition as published, with punctuation normalised for the web, and are not revised. Later editions may restate them.
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