Home Asking Price Index, May 2019: prices levitate in a market plagued by uncertainty
England and Wales asking prices fell 0.2% year-on-year in May 2019, while London's Typical Time on Market hit its slowest level in ten years.
This is the May 2019 edition of the Home Asking Price Index, released on 14 May 2019, under the headline:
Prices Levitate in a Market Plagued by Uncertainty
The headlines and summary below are the report's own words, with the key figures as it published them, followed by the report's charts and regional tables as printed.
Headlines
- Typical Time on Market indicates slowest London market for ten years.
- Typical Time on Market for England and Wales is currently 89 days (median), 11 days longer than in May 2018, making it the slowest May since 2014.
- Supply of new instructions down 9% year-on-year across the UK and down a massive 28% in London, as vendors play wait and see.
- National average price growth remains negative (-0.2% year-on-year).
- Seasonal factors lift the average home price in England and Wales by 0.5%, but low numbers of market participants undermine significance.
- In fact, prices rose in Wales, Scotland and all English regions over the last month, driven by hope rather than demand.
- Typical Time on Market rises indicate the worst regional slowdowns are in Greater London (+23%), the East of England (+25%), the South West (+20%) and the South East (+20%) year-on-year.
- Total stock levels across England and Wales are up just 1.7% year-on-year.
- The only regional supply increases were observed in the East and West Midlands (both +3%). All other regions show reductions in supply.
Summary
Overall, annualised price growth in England and Wales remains just in the red at -0.2%, despite a month-on-month rise of 0.5%. Spring optimism has managed to lift prices in all the English regions, Wales and Scotland, although this appears to be driven by wishful thinking on the part of a reduced number of vendors rather than by demand, as properties spend longer and longer on the market.
London's annualised losses have notched back again slightly from 3.1% to 2.9% and now total 6.7% since the start of the price decline in May 2016. Asking price falls in the South East continued to ease (now 1.5% year-on-year) but worsened in the East (3.0%), where the post-boom price correction is fully underway.
Caution on the part of both buyers and sellers looks set to bring the market to a standstill. London is the worst affected by this crisis of confidence, brought on by Brexit uncertainty, where lack of demand means the Typical Time on Market for unsold property has soared by 23%. At the same time, vendors' reluctance to commit has meant that supply has dropped 28% year-on-year. Market pessimism is widespread and Brexit uncertainty, combined with the post-boom malaise, continues to hamper property sales. Meanwhile, home prices appear to be hovering for the time being, while both demand and supply shrink.
Key figures
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Typical Time on Market | 89 days |
| Annual price change | -0.2% |
| Monthly price change | +0.5% |
| Supply of new instructions change | -9% |
| Total stock change | +1.7% |
| Vendor withdrawal increase | +6.5% |
Figures are for England and Wales unless the report states otherwise, as published in the edition.
Charts from the report
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, May 2019, Indexed to May 2004 (Value =100).
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, May 2019
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, May 2019
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, May 2019
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, May 2019. Note: Average = Mean (days), Typical = Median (days)
Regional tables
UK Asking Prices, May-19
| Region | Average Asking Price | Monthly % change | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | £186,383 | 0.1% | 2.0% |
| North East | £158,702 | 0.6% | 1.4% |
| Yorks & The Humber | £200,859 | 1.3% | 4.1% |
| England & Wales | £307,521 | 0.5% | -0.2% |
| North West | £205,523 | 0.6% | 3.1% |
| West Midlands | £252,770 | 0.4% | 4.4% |
| East Midlands | £237,521 | 1.3% | 2.9% |
| East | £351,707 | 0.5% | -3.0% |
| Wales | £209,022 | 0.7% | 5.1% |
| Greater London | £515,592 | 0.1% | -2.9% |
| South East | £395,165 | 0.7% | -1.5% |
| South West | £322,490 | 0.2% | -0.9% |
UK Time on Market, May-19
| Region | Average Time on Market | Typical Time on Market | Annual % supply change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 230 | 98 | -7% |
| North East | 229 | 108 | -9% |
| Yorks & The Humber | 174 | 84 | -9% |
| England & Wales | 172 | 89 | -9% |
| North West | 181 | 91 | -2% |
| West Midlands | 144 | 76 | 3% |
| East Midlands | 143 | 76 | 3% |
| East | 144 | 80 | -6% |
| Wales | 231 | 111 | -11% |
| Greater London | 180 | 96 | -28% |
| South East | 147 | 79 | -10% |
| South West | 161 | 85 | -8% |
From the director's commentary
"You can almost hear the screeching of the brakes as this huge, £200 billion market slows down."
Doug Shephard, Director at Home.co.uk
Read the full May 2019 edition (PDF, 7 pages)
About the Home Asking Price Index
The Home Asking Price Index measures the change in the prices sellers ask for residential property across England, Wales and Scotland. Today it is computed every month from around half a million advertised homes and is mix-adjusted, so a change in what happens to be on the market does not move the figure; earlier editions state the sample they were built from. Because an asking price is set months before a sale completes, the index runs around five months ahead of completed-sale measures such as the UK House Price Index.
Every edition in the archive, back to October 2006, is listed on the index page. How we measure the UK property market explains the listing data behind it, and today's figures by area are on house prices and rental prices.
Text and figures above are quoted from the May 2019 edition as published, with punctuation normalised for the web, and are not revised. Later editions may restate them.
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