Home Asking Price Index, May 2018: summer optimism masks market melancholy
Asking prices in England and Wales rose 0.5% in May 2018, but annual growth slowed to just 1.1%, while London prices fell 2.5% year on year.
This is the May 2018 edition of the Home Asking Price Index, released on 11 May 2018, under the headline:
Summer Optimism Masks Market Melancholy
The headlines and summary below are the report's own words, with the key figures as it published them, followed by the report's charts and regional tables as printed.
Headlines
- Home prices rose by 0.5% this month, reflecting seasonal optimism more than fundamentals.
- The mix-adjusted average growth for England and Wales is only 1.1% year-on-year, well below the rate of inflation by any measure.
- London prices slide again extending 12-month losses to -2.5%.
- Largest monthly increases detected in Wales, the South West, West Midlands and East Midlands.
- Typical Time on Market continues to rise in London (+11%), the South East (+14%) and East (+16%) year-on-year (YoY).
- First evidence of rising Time on Market in East Midlands and the South West
Summary
Despite the positive growth in the neighbouring regions of the North West and Yorkshire, the recovery that began in the North East last year seems to be faltering. Marketing times there are not decreasing sufficiently so as to sustain price increases. A drop of 0.5% over the last month makes the 5-year growth figure a mere 2.2% for this beleaguered regional property market.
Overall, supply of property for sale in the UK dipped slightly by 4% but the total stock for sale has increased by 7% year-on-year.
Asking prices have risen this month across England and Wales but, for the most part, this may be explained by seasonal optimism and not by firm market fundamentals. The reality is that London prices continue to slide and the slowdown that began there now seems to have spread beyond the South East and East to engulf the East Midlands and the South West. Median Time on Market figures are now up year-on-year for all five of these regions. Prices are slowly correcting in London and the South East and we expect the same process to occur in the East of England towards the end of the year.
Key figures
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Monthly change in asking prices | 0.5% |
| Annual change in asking prices | 1.1% |
| Typical Time on Market | 78 days |
| Total stock of unsold properties (YoY change) | +7.0% |
| Change in supply | -4% |
Figures are for England and Wales unless the report states otherwise, as published in the edition.
Charts from the report
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, May 2018
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, May 2018
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, May 2018
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, May 2018
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, May 2018. Note: Average = Mean (days), Typical = Median (days)
Regional tables
UK Asking Prices, May-18
| Region | Average Asking Price | Monthly % change | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | £182,681 | 0.5% | 0.8% |
| North East | £156,444 | -0.5% | 0.6% |
| Yorks & The Humber | £192,930 | 0.5% | 4.0% |
| England & Wales | £308,087 | 0.5% | 1.1% |
| North West | £199,262 | 0.6% | 4.3% |
| West Midlands | £242,190 | 0.8% | 4.4% |
| East Midlands | £230,877 | 0.8% | 5.2% |
| East | £362,748 | 0.6% | 1.3% |
| Wales | £198,926 | 1.2% | 5.6% |
| Greater London | £530,730 | -0.1% | -2.5% |
| South East | £401,205 | 0.5% | -0.7% |
| South West | £325,574 | 0.8% | 2.4% |
UK Time on Market, May-18
| Region | Average Time on Market | Typical Time on Market | Annual % supply change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 230 | 90 | -9% |
| North East | 229 | 105 | -7% |
| Yorks & The Humber | 171 | 83 | -8% |
| England & Wales | 157 | 78 | -4% |
| North West | 174 | 88 | -9% |
| West Midlands | 142 | 68 | -7% |
| East Midlands | 132 | 68 | -9% |
| East | 116 | 64 | 5% |
| Wales | 227 | 107 | -12% |
| Greater London | 147 | 78 | 0% |
| South East | 121 | 66 | 2% |
| South West | 138 | 71 | 1% |
From the director's commentary
"So don't hold your breath. We could be in for a very long period of near-zero growth and ultra-low interest rates seem here to stay for the foreseeable future."
Doug Shephard, Director at Home.co.uk
Read the full May 2018 edition (PDF, 7 pages)
About the Home Asking Price Index
The Home Asking Price Index measures the change in the prices sellers ask for residential property across England, Wales and Scotland. Today it is computed every month from around half a million advertised homes and is mix-adjusted, so a change in what happens to be on the market does not move the figure; earlier editions state the sample they were built from. Because an asking price is set months before a sale completes, the index runs around five months ahead of completed-sale measures such as the UK House Price Index.
Every edition in the archive, back to October 2006, is listed on the index page. How we measure the UK property market explains the listing data behind it, and today's figures by area are on house prices and rental prices.
Text and figures above are quoted from the May 2018 edition as published, with punctuation normalised for the web, and are not revised. Later editions may restate them.
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