Home Asking Price Index, May 2016: prices overheat in the East while the Northern regions recover
England and Wales asking prices rose 0.8% in a month and 7.5% annually, with the East of England overheating while northern regions showed recovery in marketing times.
This is the May 2016 edition of the Home Asking Price Index, released on 12 May 2016, under the headline:
Prices Overheat in the East while the Northern Regions Recover
The headlines and summary below are the report's own words, with the key figures as it published them, followed by the report's charts and regional tables as printed.
Headlines
- East of England prices leap 2.0% over the last month, indicating that the region's property market is overheating.
- The northern regions of England show huge improvements in marketing times, suggesting that these formerly lacklustre markets are in recovery.
- Prices rise in all parts of the UK, including London, making the mix-adjusted average asking price for England and Wales jump a further 0.8% since last month.
- Supply of property for sale is beginning to increase: 4% year-on-year overall but 22% in Greater London.
- Typical Time on Market edges up two days to 78 days over the last month across England and Wales: nine days less than in May 2015.
- The average annual home price appreciation for England and Wales holds at 7.5%.
- The total stock of property on the market edges up further but is still 10.6% less than in May last year.
Summary
The anticipated slowdown following the stamp duty hike for Buy-to-Let is already fading away. Buyer activity is up and prices continue to rise across the country, driving the mix-adjusted average home price to within an inch of the £300K mark.
Overall, the property market is in better shape than last year. Significant improvements in marketing times in the North suggest that these formerly stagnant regions are experiencing uplift in demand. Supply in the North East, North West and Yorkshire remains subdued and we expect prices to rise steadily over the summer months.
Indeed, the total stock of property for sale remains historically very low despite an uptick in supply in London. Scarcity remains the key price driver. The acute supply shortage in the East of England is driving prices ever skyward (up 12.9% since May 2015) and this region is now outpacing London and the South East in terms of home appreciation. We anticipate that prices will soon reach their affordability limits (as happened in London) and price rises will be more subdued next year.
Key figures
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Average asking price (England & Wales) | £296,480 |
| Monthly change | +0.8% |
| Annual change | +7.5% |
| Typical Time on Market | 78 days |
| Total stock change (year-on-year) | -10.6% |
| Supply change (year-on-year) | +4% |
Figures are for England and Wales unless the report states otherwise, as published in the edition.
Charts from the report
Source: Home.co.uk, May 2016
Source: Home.co.uk, May 2016
Source: Home.co.uk, May 2016
Source: Home.co.uk, May 2016
Source: Home.co.uk, May 2016. Note: Average = Mean (days), Typical = Median (days)
Regional tables
UK Asking Prices, May-16
| Region | Average Asking Price | Monthly % change | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | £177,121 | 0.7% | 5.8% |
| North East | £155,518 | 0.5% | 0.9% |
| Yorks & The Humber | £179,661 | 0.6% | 3.1% |
| England & Wales | £296,480 | 0.8% | 7.5% |
| North West | £183,996 | 0.6% | 2.8% |
| West Midlands | £221,898 | 0.6% | 6.5% |
| East Midlands | £207,598 | 0.8% | 5.5% |
| East | £330,990 | 2.0% | 12.8% |
| Wales | £185,527 | 0.8% | 1.9% |
| Greater London | £552,878 | 0.5% | 9.6% |
| South East | £392,712 | 0.7% | 9.5% |
| South West | £303,189 | 0.9% | 5.5% |
UK Time on Market, May-16
| Region | Average Time on Market | Typical Time on Market | Annual % supply change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 229 | 91 | 4% |
| North East | 245 | 113 | 0% |
| Yorks & The Humber | 197 | 92 | 3% |
| England & Wales | 163 | 78 | 4% |
| North West | 203 | 98 | 0% |
| West Midlands | 158 | 75 | -2% |
| East Midlands | 145 | 71 | -5% |
| East | 107 | 55 | 3% |
| Wales | 242 | 132 | 3% |
| Greater London | 103 | 61 | 22% |
| South East | 97 | 54 | 9% |
| South West | 144 | 74 | -2% |
From the director's commentary
"Owing to phenomenal demand and low supply, the East of England remains the UK's leading price growth region and we expect prices to keep on rising quickly over the summer months. There and in the South East, we expect that prices will begin to hit their affordability limits towards the end of this year as already seen in London."
Doug Shephard, Director at Home.co.uk
Read the full May 2016 edition (PDF, 6 pages)
About the Home Asking Price Index
The Home Asking Price Index measures the change in the prices sellers ask for residential property across England, Wales and Scotland. Today it is computed every month from around half a million advertised homes and is mix-adjusted, so a change in what happens to be on the market does not move the figure; earlier editions state the sample they were built from. Because an asking price is set months before a sale completes, the index runs around five months ahead of completed-sale measures such as the UK House Price Index.
Every edition in the archive, back to October 2006, is listed on the index page. How we measure the UK property market explains the listing data behind it, and today's figures by area are on house prices and rental prices.
Text and figures above are quoted from the May 2016 edition as published, with punctuation normalised for the web, and are not revised. Later editions may restate them.
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