Home Asking Price Index, March 2017: demand heads north as London slumps
Home asking prices in England and Wales rose 0.6% during March but the annual growth rate slipped to 2.6%, while overall UK property supply fell 6% year-on-year.
This is the March 2017 edition of the Home Asking Price Index, released on 14 March 2017, under the headline:
Demand Heads North as London Slumps
The headlines and summary below are the report's own words, with the key figures as it published them, followed by the report's charts and regional tables as printed.
Headlines
- A dose of spring optimism has lifted home prices (+0.6% MoM) but year-on-year price appreciation for England and Wales has slipped to just 2.6%.
- Increased Time on Market figures continue to highlight the slowdown in Greater London, the South East and the East of England compared to March last year (Median Time on Market up 63%, 23% and 10% respectively).
- Yorkshire and Humber tops the regional spring price rises with a month-on-month leap of 1.2% driven, in part, by yield-seeking Buy-to-Let investment.
- Asking prices gained in Greater London this month (+0.6% MoM) but have lost 1.4% year-on-year.
- Prices rose in all English regions, Wales and Scotland this month, in line with seasonal expectations.
- Typical Time on Market falls to 100 days, two days less than in March 2016 (England and Wales).
- The supply of property entering the UK market has dropped again, by 6% YoY. However, supply has increased further in the East and South East by 4% and 5% respectively compared to March 2016.
Summary
Stagflation in the UK property market looks highly likely this year. Whilst this month's price rises indicate a typical seasonal lift, the overall trend towards lower year-on-year price growth continues. Rising inflation due to a weaker post-Brexit pound means that capital values overall are not rising at all in real terms. However, there is significant growth in several regions over and above the rate of inflation.
Vendor confidence remains high in certain regions and is most apparent in the East of England, East Midlands, North West and South West. Whilst the slowdown persists in London and the South East, brought on by oversupply and overly high prices, it is these more outlying regions that are lending the greatest support to the national housing market figures. Prices in the East of England have risen by 9.6%, the most of any region during the last 12 months, but the pace of the price increases seems unsustainable in view of affordability constraints and comparatively low rental yields. Supply is rising in the region and this will apply downward pressure on prices over the coming months.
Key figures
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Average asking price (England & Wales) | £300,187 |
| Monthly change (England & Wales) | +0.6% |
| Annual change (England & Wales) | +2.6% |
| Typical Time on Market (England & Wales) | 100 days |
| Change in supply (UK, YoY) | -6% |
Figures are for England and Wales unless the report states otherwise, as published in the edition.
Charts from the report
Source: Home.co.uk, March 2017
Source: Home.co.uk, March 2017
Source: Home.co.uk, March 2017
Source: Home.co.uk, March 2017
Source: Home.co.uk, March 2017. Note: Average = Mean (days), Typical = Median (days)
Regional tables
UK Asking Prices, Mar-17
| Region | Average Asking Price | Monthly % change | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | £177,459 | 0.2% | 1.6% |
| North East | £154,301 | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Yorks & The Humber | £182,118 | 1.2% | 2.8% |
| England & Wales | £300,187 | 0.6% | 2.6% |
| North West | £188,804 | 0.6% | 4.2% |
| West Midlands | £227,119 | 0.8% | 3.6% |
| East Midlands | £215,225 | 1.0% | 5.4% |
| East | £352,191 | 1.0% | 9.6% |
| Wales | £185,225 | 0.3% | 1.0% |
| Greater London | £541,618 | 0.6% | -1.5% |
| South East | £395,785 | 0.1% | 2.1% |
| South West | £310,466 | 0.4% | 4.2% |
UK Time on Market, Mar-17
| Region | Average Time on Market | Typical Time on Market | Annual % supply change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 250 | 144 | -12% |
| North East | 246 | 144 | -12% |
| Yorks & The Humber | 195 | 117 | -12% |
| England & Wales | 167 | 100 | -6% |
| North West | 196 | 120 | -7% |
| West Midlands | 154 | 89 | -7% |
| East Midlands | 146 | 84 | -11% |
| East | 112 | 54 | 4% |
| Wales | 245 | 155 | -13% |
| Greater London | 132 | 80 | -5% |
| South East | 111 | 58 | 5% |
| South West | 151 | 89 | -10% |
From the director's commentary
"Hope springs eternal but a period of rapid, near double-digit growth in UK home prices is now a long way behind us."
Doug Shephard, Director at Home.co.uk
Read the full March 2017 edition (PDF, 6 pages)
About the Home Asking Price Index
The Home Asking Price Index measures the change in the prices sellers ask for residential property across England, Wales and Scotland. Today it is computed every month from around half a million advertised homes and is mix-adjusted, so a change in what happens to be on the market does not move the figure; earlier editions state the sample they were built from. Because an asking price is set months before a sale completes, the index runs around five months ahead of completed-sale measures such as the UK House Price Index.
Every edition in the archive, back to October 2006, is listed on the index page. How we measure the UK property market explains the listing data behind it, and today's figures by area are on house prices and rental prices.
Text and figures above are quoted from the March 2017 edition as published, with punctuation normalised for the web, and are not revised. Later editions may restate them.
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