Home Asking Price Index, July 2016: Brexit ends 19-month house price rally
Asking prices across England and Wales fell 0.2% during June, with London tumbling 1.1% after the Brexit vote unsettled the property market.
This is the July 2016 edition of the Home Asking Price Index, released on 12 July 2016, under the headline:
Brexit Ends 19-Month House Price Rally
The headlines and summary below are the report's own words, with the key figures as it published them, followed by the report's charts and regional tables as printed.
Headlines
- Britain's post-crisis success story ends in fear as home prices drop after Brexit.
- Brexit woes pop the London bubble as prices slide 1.1% in just one month.
- Prices fell in four English regions and Scotland, making the overall mix-adjusted average asking price drop 0.2% since last month.
- Supply of property increases in the key regions of London (+6%), East of England (+7%) and the South East (+4%).
- Typical Time on Market edges up another two days to 82 days over the last month across England and Wales: still six days less than in July 2015.
- The average annualised rate of home price appreciation for England and Wales slips further to 6.1%.
- The total stock of property on the market edges up again but is still 5.2% less than in July last year.
Summary
Confidence among sellers has been seriously dampened by the outcome of the Brexit vote. London prices, which were already looking the most overvalued, have been hit the hardest, falling 1.1% in just one month (which equates to around £6K less for the average home in the region). The average house price in the South East also slipped 0.2% during the last month, but the biggest drop outside London was in the North East (-0.7%). This fall comes as a serious blow to a region that was just showing the first signs of genuine recovery since the financial crisis sent the market into a downward spiral.
However, several English regions and Wales still indicate price growth. The East Midlands rose the most (0.7%) over the last month, followed by the North West (0.4%), Wales (0.4%), Yorkshire (0.3%), the West Midlands (0.2%) and the East of England (0.1%). As the Brexit vote is only about two weeks old, we may well see these figures turn negative next month.
Key figures
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Average asking price (England & Wales) | £296,910 |
| Monthly change | -0.2% |
| Annual change | 6.1% |
| Typical Time on Market | 82 days |
| Total stock change (year-on-year) | -5.2% |
Figures are for England and Wales unless the report states otherwise, as published in the edition.
Charts from the report
Source: Home.co.uk, July 2016
Source: Home.co.uk, July 2016
Source: Home.co.uk, July 2016
Source: Home.co.uk, July 2016
Source: Home.co.uk, July 2016. Note: Average = Mean (days), Typical = Median (days)
Regional tables
UK Asking Prices, Jul-16
| Region | Average Asking Price | Monthly % change | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | £178,721 | -0.2% | 6.6% |
| North East | £154,437 | -0.7% | 0.8% |
| Yorks & The Humber | £181,844 | 0.3% | 3.5% |
| England & Wales | £296,910 | -0.2% | 6.1% |
| North West | £185,861 | 0.4% | 3.6% |
| West Midlands | £223,747 | 0.2% | 6.7% |
| East Midlands | £209,699 | 0.7% | 5.8% |
| East | £336,547 | 0.1% | 13.3% |
| Wales | £185,617 | 0.4% | 1.3% |
| Greater London | £544,461 | -1.1% | 5.3% |
| South East | £392,872 | -0.2% | 6.9% |
| South West | £305,644 | -0.1% | 5.3% |
UK Time on Market, Jul-16
| Region | Average Time on Market | Typical Time on Market | Annual % supply change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 209 | 88 | 8% |
| North East | 235 | 117 | -3% |
| Yorks & The Humber | 183 | 91 | -5% |
| England & Wales | 156 | 82 | -1% |
| North West | 190 | 99 | -7% |
| West Midlands | 149 | 77 | -9% |
| East Midlands | 139 | 75 | -6% |
| East | 103 | 56 | 7% |
| Wales | 224 | 116 | -5% |
| Greater London | 109 | 68 | 6% |
| South East | 98 | 59 | 4% |
| South West | 140 | 76 | -3% |
From the director's commentary
"Until last month, the property market had been functioning well and was helping to shore up the fragile UK economy. Brexit just knocked off one of the wheels."
Doug Shephard, Director at Home.co.uk
Read the full July 2016 edition (PDF, 6 pages)
About the Home Asking Price Index
The Home Asking Price Index measures the change in the prices sellers ask for residential property across England, Wales and Scotland. Today it is computed every month from around half a million advertised homes and is mix-adjusted, so a change in what happens to be on the market does not move the figure; earlier editions state the sample they were built from. Because an asking price is set months before a sale completes, the index runs around five months ahead of completed-sale measures such as the UK House Price Index.
Every edition in the archive, back to October 2006, is listed on the index page. How we measure the UK property market explains the listing data behind it, and today's figures by area are on house prices and rental prices.
Text and figures above are quoted from the July 2016 edition as published, with punctuation normalised for the web, and are not revised. Later editions may restate them.
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