Home Asking Price Index, January 2024: prices hold firm on rate cut optimism and falling stock
Asking prices in England and Wales held steady in December, unsold stock fell to 423,827 and rents eased 2.9% over three months.
This is the January 2024 edition of the Home Asking Price Index, released on 12 January 2024, under the headline:
Prices Hold Firm on Rate Cut Optimism and Falling Stock
The headlines and summary below are the report's own words, with the key figures as it published them, followed by the report's charts and regional tables as printed.
Headlines
- Asking prices remain unchanged since last month across England and Wales but are down year-on-year by just 0.5% vs. Jan 2023.
- The total sales stock count for England and Wales has fallen again. The current total of unsold property is 423,827, around 15,000 less than last month and typical for the time of year.
- The number of new instructions entering the market in December 2023 was only 3% more than during December 2022. This is a remarkably small increase given the market chaos caused by the doomed Truss-Kwarteng mini-budget, which led to a shock drop in prices of 2.4% in just one month.
- The Typical Time on Market for unsold property in England and Wales rose by twelve days during December, again in line with seasonal expectations. The current median is 112 days; in pre-COVID January 2020, the same measure was 120 days.
- Prices rose in three English regions and in Wales during the last month and remained unchanged in two, thus indicating significant vendor optimism for the time of year; the largest rise was in the North East (1.0%).
Summary
Time on Market figures are consistent with pre-COVID years. Normal seasonal expectations are for large drops in marketing times in March and April. Given how mortgage rates are improving, this appears the most likely scenario.
At the regional level, Typical Time on Market figures indicate that the North of England, Scotland and Wales all continue to show large improvements over their January 2019 performance. Unsurprisingly, this correlates closely with annualised price growth in those regions which remains significantly positive.
Home prices remain unchanged overall since last month. Prices are supported by lower stock levels and increased expectations of lower mortgage rates as inflation falls. Annualised growth in home market values for England and Wales is currently just into the negative at -0.5%, indicating a resilient market given the headwinds of 2023 and much better than many pundits predicted. Indeed, given the fact that the supply of new instructions remains relatively low and the worst of inflation appears to be far behind us, market participants may allow themselves some cautious optimism as we commence the new year. While the market has slowed, it has certainly not frozen and still retains significant momentum.
Key figures
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Annual change in asking prices | -0.5% |
| Total unsold stock | 423,827 |
| Change in new instructions | +3% |
| Typical Time on Market | 112 days |
| UK asking rents annual change | +5.0% |
Figures are for England and Wales unless the report states otherwise, as published in the edition.
Charts from the report
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, January 2024, Indexed to May 2004 (Value=100).
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, January 2024 and ONS [RPI ex. housing].
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, January 2024
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, January 2024
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, January 2024
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, January 2024
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, January 2024. Average = Mean (days), Typical = Median (days).
Regional tables
UK Asking Prices, Jan-24
| Region | Average Asking Price | Monthly % change | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | £222,634 | -1.0% | 2.5% |
| North East | £190,546 | 1.0% | 3.3% |
| Yorks & The Humber | £244,028 | 0.0% | 1.4% |
| England & Wales | £349,400 | 0.0% | -0.5% |
| North West | £263,444 | 0.2% | 3.8% |
| West Midlands | £295,176 | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| East Midlands | £278,141 | 0.0% | -1.9% |
| East | £388,644 | -0.3% | -2.0% |
| Wales | £264,040 | 0.4% | 2.1% |
| Greater London | £538,593 | 0.4% | -1.9% |
| South East | £437,106 | -0.2% | -1.0% |
| South West | £371,793 | -0.5% | -1.6% |
UK Time on Market, Jan-24
| Region | Average Time on Market | Typical Time on Market | Annualised % supply change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 213 | 109 | 3% |
| North East | 174 | 109 | 6% |
| Yorks & The Humber | 161 | 107 | 3% |
| England & Wales | 182 | 112 | 3% |
| North West | 179 | 115 | 0% |
| West Midlands | 174 | 110 | 2% |
| East Midlands | 162 | 110 | -2% |
| East | 167 | 106 | 3% |
| Wales | 190 | 124 | 12% |
| Greater London | 216 | 116 | 5% |
| South East | 171 | 105 | 0% |
| South West | 166 | 110 | 6% |
From the director's commentary
"I don't think we are out of the woods just yet. However, with both inflation and mortgage rates heading in a more favourable direction, we may allow ourselves to be more optimistic about 2024 than last year."
Doug Shephard, Director at Home.co.uk
Read the full January 2024 edition (PDF, 10 pages)
About the Home Asking Price Index
The Home Asking Price Index measures the change in the prices sellers ask for residential property across England, Wales and Scotland. Today it is computed every month from around half a million advertised homes and is mix-adjusted, so a change in what happens to be on the market does not move the figure; earlier editions state the sample they were built from. Because an asking price is set months before a sale completes, the index runs around five months ahead of completed-sale measures such as the UK House Price Index.
Every edition in the archive, back to October 2006, is listed on the index page. How we measure the UK property market explains the listing data behind it, and today's figures by area are on house prices and rental prices.
Text and figures above are quoted from the January 2024 edition as published, with punctuation normalised for the web, and are not revised. Later editions may restate them.
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