Home Asking Price Index, January 2022: London accelerates while inflation destroys real growth
England and Wales unsold property stock fell to a record low of 222,050, down 40.9% year on year, while asking prices rose 0.2% in the month.
This is the January 2022 edition of the Home Asking Price Index, released on 12 January 2022, under the headline:
London Accelerates While Inflation Destroys Real Growth
The headlines and summary below are the report's own words, with the key figures as it published them, followed by the report's charts and regional tables as printed.
Headlines
- The Greater London market performance looks set to break out this year. Supply is down a massive 33% year-on-year, sales stock is down 25% and prices are already up 1.3% over the last six months, making it one of the top four performing English regions.
- Rampant inflation already makes real home price growth negative overall and likely to be increasingly so over the coming months.
- The total stock of property for sale in England and Wales continues to fall as demand outstrips supply, hitting a new record low of 222,050, 40.9% lower than in January 2021 and 50.1% less than in January 2019.
- Monthly supply of new sales listings remains comparatively low across the UK, down 18% compared to the month of December 2020. Greater London shows the greatest contraction again this month.
- Asking prices across England and Wales show a small rise this month, up 0.2% since December, while the nominal annualised average growth remains unchanged at 6.9%. Prices in the West Midlands show an exceptionally bullish rise of 1.5%. The greatest price correction was in the South East (-0.8%).
- The market retains considerable momentum with the Typical Time on Market for unsold property in England and Wales at 92 days (median), nine days less than in January 2021.
- The East Midlands property market now heads up the 12-month regional price growth table with an inflation-beating annualised gain of 10.7%, putting the former leader, the East of England, into second place (+10.4%).
- Rents in Greater London are up an annualised 25%, while the stock of properties to let is down by 41% over the same period.
- Rents in central London continue to skyrocket. The greatest rises in asking rents over the last year are in the City (+98%), Westminster (+53%), Kensington and Chelsea (+50%) and Hammersmith and Fulham (+49%), as vast demand returns for upmarket city living.
- Supply of rental properties is low or falling in all English regions, Scotland and Wales (down 24% since December 2020) and this is creating significant upward price pressure. Rents are up an annualised 7.2% across the UK since January last year, and the pace appears to be picking up with 5.8% of this rise occurring in just the last three months.
- The largest annualised average rent hikes outside of London are in the East of England (+7.0%) and the South East (+6.1%).
Summary
Supply shortfalls remain evident across all the English regions, Scotland and Wales, worsening the already severe property drought. Consequently, the total count of unsold property dropped again to a further record low this month. Demand, fuelled by artificially low mortgage interest rates, has demolished 41% of agents' inventories over the last twelve months alone.
Of course, such an imbalance of supply and demand has meant that prices have been pushed up across the entire country. Low supply and seemingly indefatigable demand look set to persist into 2022, continuing the upward price pressure. Even the Greater London market, which suffered the most during the lockdowns, now looks very bullish with prices rising for a third consecutive month and supply falling.
Key figures
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Total unsold stock | 222,050 |
| Annual change in stock | -40.9% |
| Stock change vs Jan 2019 | -50.1% |
| Monthly asking price change | +0.2% |
| Annual asking price growth | 6.9% |
| Typical Time on Market | 92 days |
| Monthly new listings change | -18% |
| UK annualised rent growth | 7.2% |
Figures are for England and Wales unless the report states otherwise, as published in the edition.
Charts from the report
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, January 2022, Indexed to May 2004 (Value=100).
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, January 2022
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, January 2022
Source: ONS and Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, January 2022 (RPI ex. housing for December 2021 and January 2022 are our estimates).
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, January 2022
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, January 2022
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, January 2022. Average = Mean (days), Typical = Median (days).
Regional tables
UK Asking Prices, Jan-22
| Region | Average Asking Price | Monthly % change | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | £205,598 | -0.5% | 3.6% |
| North East | £175,754 | 0.8% | 2.3% |
| Yorks & The Humber | £227,503 | 0.1% | 3.0% |
| England & Wales | £343,301 | 0.2% | 6.9% |
| North West | £239,028 | -0.1% | 5.7% |
| West Midlands | £288,410 | 1.5% | 8.7% |
| East Midlands | £276,357 | 0.9% | 10.7% |
| East | £393,164 | -0.3% | 10.4% |
| Wales | £245,796 | 1.0% | 8.3% |
| Greater London | £553,010 | 0.5% | 4.0% |
| South East | £435,449 | -0.8% | 7.3% |
| South West | £361,977 | -0.1% | 9.5% |
UK Time on Market, Jan-22
| Region | Average Time on Market | Typical Time on Market | 2 year % supply change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 269 | 103 | 16% |
| North East | 200 | 84 | 3% |
| Yorks & The Humber | 155 | 76 | 4% |
| England & Wales | 191 | 92 | 2% |
| North West | 175 | 86 | 3% |
| West Midlands | 172 | 81 | 0% |
| East Midlands | 140 | 69 | 2% |
| East | 165 | 81 | -3% |
| Wales | 190 | 89 | 1% |
| Greater London | 219 | 114 | 15% |
| South East | 179 | 86 | -6% |
| South West | 169 | 80 | -5% |
From the director's commentary
"The lesson from history is clear. Rent controls destroy the PRS."
Doug Shephard, Director at Home.co.uk
Read the full January 2022 edition (PDF, 9 pages)
About the Home Asking Price Index
The Home Asking Price Index measures the change in the prices sellers ask for residential property across England, Wales and Scotland. Today it is computed every month from around half a million advertised homes and is mix-adjusted, so a change in what happens to be on the market does not move the figure; earlier editions state the sample they were built from. Because an asking price is set months before a sale completes, the index runs around five months ahead of completed-sale measures such as the UK House Price Index.
Every edition in the archive, back to October 2006, is listed on the index page. How we measure the UK property market explains the listing data behind it, and today's figures by area are on house prices and rental prices.
Text and figures above are quoted from the January 2022 edition as published, with punctuation normalised for the web, and are not revised. Later editions may restate them.
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