Home Asking Price Index, January 2021: vendors remain confident but London exodus continues
Asking prices in England and Wales rose 0.1% in the month and 4.9% year-on-year, while Greater London remained the weakest region with just 3.0% annual growth.
This is the January 2021 edition of the Home Asking Price Index, released on 12 January 2021, under the headline:
Vendors Remain Confident but London Exodus Continues
The headlines and summary below are the report's own words, with the key figures as it published them, followed by the report's charts and regional tables as printed.
Headlines
- Asking prices hold firm, nudging up 0.1% across England and Wales since last month and retaining last year's growth.
- The mix-adjusted average asking price for England and Wales registers a remarkably upbeat growth of 4.9% year-on-year.
- Extraordinary levels of supply continue in Greater London (total new listings up 68% in December compared to December 2019), although unsold stock levels have reduced slightly for a second consecutive month.
- By contrast, supply across the English regions, Scotland and Wales is outpaced by demand and this is pushing up prices. Overall, total stock for sale in England and Wales has fallen to a new record low thus bolstering vendors' confidence.
- The northern property markets indicate phenomenal strength, with the Yorkshire and Humber region showing stunning year-on-year price growth of 10.1%, followed by the North West with an annualised gain of 8.2%.
- Average prices dipped in just two regions of England and in Scotland during the last month.
- The market retains exceptional momentum with the Typical Time on Market at a mere 101 days for unsold property, 19 days less than in January 2020 (England and Wales), while UK-wide supply is up a mere 14% year-on-year (including London).
- UK rents have fallen 0.9% year-on-year, dragged down by an exodus-induced average drop of 16.9% in the Greater London lettings market.
- By contrast, great scarcity is evident in most English regions and in Wales, thereby forcing up rents. The largest annualised hikes are in the East Midlands (+14.0%) and the West Midlands (+16.8%).
- Greater London continues to indicate an oversupply in properties available to rent (+37% year-on-year). This worrying situation is already weighing heavy on the capital's buy-to-let sales market and is likely to be exacerbated by the latest national lockdown.
Summary
Despite the extraordinary events of 2020 the UK property market remains on a firm footing overall as we commence the new year. Home prices are up 4.9% overall and the market is showing significant momentum. Neither Brexit fears nor COVID have managed to topple this vital part of the economy, although the measures enforced to contain the pandemic have radically changed the nature of supply and demand. However, thus far the London exodus has not pushed down prices significantly, save for some more central locations. Growth remains at 3.0% year-on-year overall for the Greater London region and this is remarkable in itself given current events. Looking forward to how 2021 will play out, we see opportunity for further scarcity-driven price growth in the regions and a period of readjustment for the capital.
For the time being, the UK property market remains in good shape but dark clouds of uncertainty loom over both the sales and rental sectors for the year ahead. The annualised mix-adjusted average price growth across England and Wales is currently a remarkable +4.9%; in January 2020, the annualised rate of increase of home prices was a mere 0.3%.
Key figures
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Monthly change in asking prices (England and Wales) | +0.1% |
| Annual change in asking prices (England and Wales) | +4.9% |
| Typical Time on Market (England and Wales) | 101 days |
| UK-wide supply change year-on-year | +14% |
| UK rents annual change | -0.9% |
Figures are for England and Wales unless the report states otherwise, as published in the edition.
Charts from the report
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, January 2021, Indexed to May 2004 (Value =100).
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, January 2021
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, January 2021
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, January 2021
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, January 2021. Note: Average = Mean (days), Typical = Median (days)
Regional tables
UK Asking Prices, Jan-21
| Region | Average Asking Price | Monthly % change | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | £198,418 | -1.1% | 7.2% |
| North East | £171,769 | 1.0% | 7.2% |
| Yorks & The Humber | £220,958 | -0.1% | 10.1% |
| England & Wales | £321,088 | 0.1% | 4.9% |
| North West | £226,060 | 0.0% | 8.2% |
| West Midlands | £265,431 | 0.2% | 4.2% |
| East Midlands | £249,565 | 0.5% | 4.4% |
| East | £356,157 | 0.0% | 4.0% |
| Wales | £227,070 | 0.3% | 7.9% |
| Greater London | £531,662 | 0.6% | 3.0% |
| South East | £405,792 | -0.3% | 4.4% |
| South West | £330,648 | 0.0% | 3.8% |
UK Time on Market, Jan-21
| Region | Average Time on Market | Typical Time on Market | Annual % supply change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 266 | 106 | 13% |
| North East | 251 | 120 | -4% |
| Yorks & The Humber | 182 | 94 | 12% |
| England & Wales | 192 | 101 | 14% |
| North West | 197 | 101 | 8% |
| West Midlands | 172 | 95 | 6% |
| East Midlands | 163 | 90 | 7% |
| East | 169 | 94 | 9% |
| Wales | 233 | 110 | 8% |
| Greater London | 185 | 96 | 68% |
| South East | 177 | 94 | 6% |
| South West | 186 | 99 | 4% |
From the director's commentary
"The market made an extraordinary recovery from being frozen last year, and the growth figures and record levels of transactions are testament to a thriving industry despite the pandemic. However, the market has not come through unscathed."
Doug Shephard, Director at Home.co.uk
Read the full January 2021 edition (PDF, 7 pages)
About the Home Asking Price Index
The Home Asking Price Index measures the change in the prices sellers ask for residential property across England, Wales and Scotland. Today it is computed every month from around half a million advertised homes and is mix-adjusted, so a change in what happens to be on the market does not move the figure; earlier editions state the sample they were built from. Because an asking price is set months before a sale completes, the index runs around five months ahead of completed-sale measures such as the UK House Price Index.
Every edition in the archive, back to October 2006, is listed on the index page. How we measure the UK property market explains the listing data behind it, and today's figures by area are on house prices and rental prices.
Text and figures above are quoted from the January 2021 edition as published, with punctuation normalised for the web, and are not revised. Later editions may restate them.
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