Home Asking Price Index, January 2019: growth nears zero while London readies for recovery
Average asking prices across England and Wales fell 0.5% during the month, leaving annual growth at just 0.2% as more regions entered price correction.
This is the January 2019 edition of the Home Asking Price Index, released on 15 January 2019, under the headline:
Growth Nears Zero while London Readies for Recovery
The headlines and summary below are the report's own words, with the key figures as it published them, followed by the report's charts and regional tables as printed.
Headlines
- National average price growth slips to just 0.2% year-on-year (YoY), as negative sentiment weighs on vendor expectations.
- The largest monthly fall was in Wales (-1.1%), the first indication of more cautious pricing in this frothy market.
- Average home price in England and Wales falls again, by 0.5% this month.
- Growth in the South West turns year-on-year negative, the fourth region to do so in this downturn.
- Typical Time on Market continues to rise in London (+8%), the South East (+12%) and the East of England (+10% YoY), leading to further vendor frustration and price cutting.
- 16.9% more properties were reduced in price whilst on the market last month, compared to December 2017.
- Supply increases ease again offering some respite for vendors: up by just 3% year-on-year overall, although large surges were observed in the West Midlands(+18%) and East of England (+11%).
- Typical Time on Market for England and Wales has risen to 111 days, four days longer than in January 2018.
- Meanwhile, double-digit rent growth in several boroughs indicates the first 'green shoots' for the beleaguered London property market as yields rise.
Summary
Overall, supply of property for sale in the UK is up by 3% YoY and the total stock for sale has increased by 11.4%.
The downturn steepens as we enter 2019. Prices continue to fall in London, the South East and East of England. In fact, the rate at which prices are correcting in these regions is increasing. London's losses over the last twelve months have now extended to 3.2% or around £17,000 for the average property. Further erosion of asking prices in the South East and the East has now precipitated losses of 1.9% and 0.8% respectively.
In January 2018, the annualised rate of increase of home prices was 2.7%; today the same measure is just 0.2% and continues to trend towards the negative.
Key figures
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| National average price growth (YoY) | 0.2% |
| Monthly change in average home price (England & Wales) | -0.5% |
| Typical Time on Market (England & Wales) | 111 days |
| Increase in properties reduced in price | +16.9% |
| Supply increase (YoY, UK) | 3% |
| Total stock for sale increase (UK) | +11.4% |
Figures are for England and Wales unless the report states otherwise, as published in the edition.
Charts from the report
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, January 2019. Indexed to May 2004 (Value =100).
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, January 2019
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index and Home.co.uk Asking Rent Index January 2019
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, January 2019
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, January 2019. Note: Average = Mean (days), Typical = Median (days)
Regional tables
UK Asking Prices, Jan-19
| Region | Average Asking Price | Monthly % change | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | £183,662 | -1.0% | 2.1% |
| North East | £157,101 | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Yorks & The Humber | £196,066 | -0.3% | 4.1% |
| England & Wales | £305,276 | -0.5% | 0.2% |
| North West | £203,038 | -0.3% | 4.5% |
| West Midlands | £249,961 | -0.1% | 5.1% |
| East Midlands | £232,763 | -0.2% | 3.1% |
| East | £351,559 | -0.7% | -0.8% |
| Wales | £203,829 | -1.1% | 5.7% |
| Greater London | £516,421 | -0.4% | -3.2% |
| South East | £393,056 | -1.0% | -1.9% |
| South West | £320,384 | -0.6% | -0.1% |
UK Time on Market, Jan-19
| Region | Average Time on Market | Typical Time on Market | Annual % supply change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 239 | 131 | 14% |
| North East | 243 | 138 | 1% |
| Yorks & The Humber | 188 | 113 | -1% |
| England & Wales | 182 | 111 | 3% |
| North West | 191 | 117 | 2% |
| West Midlands | 155 | 97 | 18% |
| East Midlands | 152 | 97 | 5% |
| East | 148 | 98 | 11% |
| Wales | 240 | 138 | 1% |
| Greater London | 181 | 111 | -13% |
| South East | 153 | 101 | 0% |
| South West | 167 | 106 | 9% |
From the director's commentary
"Overall growth will be non-existent and probably negative by the year end, certainly much lower than the wildly optimistic forecast issued by the Halifax which predicted growth in the 2 to 4% range."
Doug Shephard, Director at Home.co.uk
Read the full January 2019 edition (PDF, 7 pages)
About the Home Asking Price Index
The Home Asking Price Index measures the change in the prices sellers ask for residential property across England, Wales and Scotland. Today it is computed every month from around half a million advertised homes and is mix-adjusted, so a change in what happens to be on the market does not move the figure; earlier editions state the sample they were built from. Because an asking price is set months before a sale completes, the index runs around five months ahead of completed-sale measures such as the UK House Price Index.
Every edition in the archive, back to October 2006, is listed on the index page. How we measure the UK property market explains the listing data behind it, and today's figures by area are on house prices and rental prices.
Text and figures above are quoted from the January 2019 edition as published, with punctuation normalised for the web, and are not revised. Later editions may restate them.
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