Home Asking Price Index, January 2018: northern house prices power up
Average asking prices in England and Wales rose 0.1% in December and 2.7% annually, while northern regions posted the strongest growth.
This is the January 2018 edition of the Home Asking Price Index, released on 12 January 2018, under the headline:
Northern House Prices Power Up
The headlines and summary below are the report's own words, with the key figures as it published them, followed by the report's charts and regional tables as printed.
Headlines
- The North West and Yorkshire show lower marketing times and the best price performance for many years with gains of 4.1% and 5.1% respectively.
- Strong growth continues with the vibrant East and West Midlands markets continuing to lead the regional growth tables with annualised gains of 6.5% and 5.7% respectively.
- Typical Time on Market rises again in London (+7.3%), the South East (+5.9%) and East (+6.0%) but year-on-year improvements are apparent in all other regions.
- Home prices tick up by the slightest margin this month, taking the mix-adjusted average for England and Wales up 0.1% since December and 2.7% year-on-year.
- Greater London year-on-year prices are negative for a 14th consecutive month (currently -1.0%). Asking prices in the capital region have fallen 3.5% since their peak in May 2016.
- Prices fell in just one English region (East of England) and in Scotland over the last month, which suggests significant optimism among vendors for 2018.
- London shows a surprising rise of 0.3% since December: perhaps unjustified optimism on the part of vendors.
- Typical Time on Market for England and Wales has increased to 107 days, four days less than in January 2017.
- The total stock of properties on the market in England and Wales nudged up again slightly by just 1.6% year-on-year, indicating no great change in the overall balance of supply and demand.
Summary
The slowdown that originated in London has clearly spread to the adjacent regions of the East of England and the South East. However, there are no indications, so far, that the same malaise is about to overtake other English regions or Wales in 2018. On the contrary, the Midlands and the North are currently enjoying steady price growth whilst falling marketing times show that demand is strong. Unlike the feverish pace of price rises previously observed in London and the Home Counties, the growth observed in the North and Midlands is, for the time being, more moderate and therefore appears more sustainable.
Hence, as we begin 2018, the overall property market dynamic is characterised by a balance between growth in the North and Midlands and the slowly deflating London market. Moreover, we expect the slowdowns to persist in the South East and East of England but their lower growth will be fairly neutral with regard to the national figures. Owing to this 'push-pull' dynamic, North & Midlands vs. London, the apparent stagflation in the national growth figures that characterised much of 2017 looks set to persist into 2018.
Key figures
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Monthly change in average asking price (England & Wales) | +0.1% |
| Annual change in average asking price (England & Wales) | 2.7% |
| Typical Time on Market (England & Wales) | 107 days |
| Change in total stock for sale (England & Wales, year-on-year) | +1.6% |
| Annualised price growth in January 2017 (England & Wales) | 3.1% |
Figures are for England and Wales unless the report states otherwise, as published in the edition.
Charts from the report
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, January 2018
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, January 2018
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, January 2018
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, January 2018
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, January 2018
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, January 2018. Note: Average = Mean (days), Typical = Median (days)
Regional tables
UK Asking Prices, Jan-18
| Region | Average Asking Price | Monthly % change | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | £179,955 | -0.8% | 1.4% |
| North East | £156,649 | 0.6% | 1.7% |
| Yorks & The Humber | £188,423 | 0.3% | 5.1% |
| England & Wales | £304,785 | 0.1% | 2.7% |
| North West | £194,267 | 0.0% | 4.1% |
| West Midlands | £237,901 | 0.0% | 5.7% |
| East Midlands | £225,858 | 0.4% | 6.5% |
| East | £354,418 | -0.5% | 3.6% |
| Wales | £192,872 | 0.5% | 4.3% |
| Greater London | £533,334 | 0.3% | -0.9% |
| South East | £400,613 | 0.1% | 2.3% |
| South West | £320,730 | 0.2% | 4.2% |
UK Time on Market, Jan-18
| Region | Average Time on Market | Typical Time on Market | Annual % supply change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 264 | 142 | -14% |
| North East | 254 | 141 | -1% |
| Yorks & The Humber | 197 | 116 | -9% |
| England & Wales | 177 | 107 | -3% |
| North West | 195 | 118 | -8% |
| West Midlands | 161 | 98 | -9% |
| East Midlands | 150 | 94 | -2% |
| East | 130 | 89 | 4% |
| Wales | 252 | 149 | -13% |
| Greater London | 160 | 103 | 1% |
| South East | 134 | 90 | 6% |
| South West | 158 | 102 | -1% |
From the director's commentary
"A slowly deflating London market is to be welcomed, as is the steady (non-volatile) growth occurring in many regions. All these current trends lead towards a more stable property market."
Doug Shephard, Director at Home.co.uk
Read the full January 2018 edition (PDF, 7 pages)
About the Home Asking Price Index
The Home Asking Price Index measures the change in the prices sellers ask for residential property across England, Wales and Scotland. Today it is computed every month from around half a million advertised homes and is mix-adjusted, so a change in what happens to be on the market does not move the figure; earlier editions state the sample they were built from. Because an asking price is set months before a sale completes, the index runs around five months ahead of completed-sale measures such as the UK House Price Index.
Every edition in the archive, back to October 2006, is listed on the index page. How we measure the UK property market explains the listing data behind it, and today's figures by area are on house prices and rental prices.
Text and figures above are quoted from the January 2018 edition as published, with punctuation normalised for the web, and are not revised. Later editions may restate them.
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