Home Asking Price Index, January 2017: home prices flatline as supply increases
Annual asking price growth for England and Wales slowed to 3.1% in January 2017 while new instructions rose across all regions and Typical Time on Market lengthened to 111 days.
This is the January 2017 edition of the Home Asking Price Index, released on 12 January 2017, under the headline:
Home Prices Flatline as Supply Increases
The headlines and summary below are the report's own words, with the key figures as it published them, followed by the report's charts and regional tables as printed.
Headlines
- Greater London slips further into negative territory with prices having lost 1.1% over the last year.
- The number of properties entering the market has increased in all regions with the largest rises in the East of England (+18%) and Scotland (23%) (Dec 16 vs. Dec 15).
- Average home price for England and Wales shows no significant change since last month's fall.
- Prices fell in three English regions and in both Wales and Scotland this month.
- Worst monthly falls were in the East of England (-0.6%) and Scotland (-1.1%).
- Typical Time on Market jumps up 16 days to 111 days over the last month across England and Wales.
- The overall rate of annualised home price appreciation for England and Wales drops to 3.1% (Jan 17 vs. Jan 16).
- The total stock of property on the market in England and Wales has slipped again but is 1.7% more than in January last year.
- Time on Market figures show London and the South East have slowed down considerably over the last year.
Summary
Overall price growth continues to fall as we commence 2017. The London market continues to decline and this is impacting negatively on the national average. However, not all regions registered average home price declines this month. The strongest rises are in the East Midlands (0.3%) and the North West (0.3%), although these figures were counterbalanced by falls in Scotland (-1.1%) and the East of England (-0.6%). A seasonal lull is, of course, to be expected at this time of year, but the rapidly declining year-on-year trend shows the real picture. In January 2016 the annualised rate of increase of home prices was 8.2%; today the same measure is a mere 3.1%.
The supply figures are telling. New instructions on the market were up across all English regions and in Scotland and Wales in December. The largest increases were in Scotland (+23%) and the East of England (+18%). The lowest supply figures were in the East Midlands (+5%), West Midlands (+6%) and the North East (+6%). This is a relatively rare event for vendors, who often prefer to defer the decision to sell until after the festive period. Such a 'rush to exit' may have been brought about by several factors, including the changes in buy-to-let taxation, overvaluation, fears of rising interest rates and falling prices.
Key figures
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Average asking price (England & Wales) | £296,761 |
| Monthly change | 0.1% |
| Annual change | 3.1% |
| Typical Time on Market | 111 days |
| Total stock change (year-on-year) | +1.7% |
Figures are for England and Wales unless the report states otherwise, as published in the edition.
Charts from the report
Source: Home.co.uk, January 2017
Source: Home.co.uk, January 2017
Source: Home.co.uk, January 2017
Source: Home.co.uk, January 2017
Source: Home.co.uk, January 2017. Note: Average = Mean (days), Typical = Median (days)
Regional tables
UK Asking Prices, Jan-17
| Region | Average Asking Price | Monthly % change | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | £177,516 | -1.1% | 5.0% |
| North East | £154,101 | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Yorks & The Humber | £179,274 | -0.1% | 2.2% |
| England & Wales | £296,761 | 0.1% | 3.1% |
| North West | £186,689 | 0.3% | 3.5% |
| West Midlands | £225,016 | 0.2% | 5.3% |
| East Midlands | £212,029 | 0.3% | 5.2% |
| East | £342,086 | -0.6% | 10.2% |
| Wales | £184,954 | 0.0% | 1.3% |
| Greater London | £538,074 | 0.2% | -1.1% |
| South East | £391,743 | 0.1% | 3.2% |
| South West | £307,859 | -0.1% | 4.6% |
UK Time on Market, Jan-17
| Region | Average Time on Market | Typical Time on Market | Annual % supply change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 258 | 145 | 23% |
| North East | 258 | 150 | 6% |
| Yorks & The Humber | 207 | 124 | 10% |
| England & Wales | 182 | 111 | 10% |
| North West | 210 | 128 | 10% |
| West Midlands | 171 | 104 | 6% |
| East Midlands | 160 | 101 | 5% |
| East | 126 | 84 | 18% |
| Wales | 252 | 155 | 7% |
| Greater London | 145 | 96 | 9% |
| South East | 125 | 85 | 12% |
| South West | 169 | 108 | 7% |
From the director's commentary
"These figures seem ludicrous in the current climate and one wonders which sector of the market they are actually measuring? In fairness, asking prices, as measured by this index, tend to be several months ahead of mortgage approval data and even more ahead of the Land Registry figures."
Doug Shephard, Director at Home.co.uk
Read the full January 2017 edition (PDF, 6 pages)
About the Home Asking Price Index
The Home Asking Price Index measures the change in the prices sellers ask for residential property across England, Wales and Scotland. Today it is computed every month from around half a million advertised homes and is mix-adjusted, so a change in what happens to be on the market does not move the figure; earlier editions state the sample they were built from. Because an asking price is set months before a sale completes, the index runs around five months ahead of completed-sale measures such as the UK House Price Index.
Every edition in the archive, back to October 2006, is listed on the index page. How we measure the UK property market explains the listing data behind it, and today's figures by area are on house prices and rental prices.
Text and figures above are quoted from the January 2017 edition as published, with punctuation normalised for the web, and are not revised. Later editions may restate them.
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