Home Asking Price Index, January 2015: optimism gives home prices an early nudge up
Average asking prices in England and Wales rose 0.1% during the month and stood 7.8% higher than a year earlier, with total stock at 458,112 properties.
This is the January 2015 edition of the Home Asking Price Index, released on 14 January 2015, under the headline:
Optimism Gives Home Prices An Early Nudge Up
The headlines and summary below are the report's own words, with the key figures as it published them, followed by the report's charts and regional tables as printed.
Headlines
- Asking prices rise in seven English regions and in Wales.
- Prices nudge up 0.1% overall in England and Wales during the last month.
- The average annual appreciation for England and Wales edges up to 7.8%.
- Only Scotland and East Anglia show surprisingly significant month-on-month falls (0.6% and 0.8% respectively).
- Supply of property for sale in Greater London up by 20% (vs. December 2013) and by 4% across the UK.
- Number of price-cut properties at a 4-year low.
- Prices continue to fall in Prime Central London.
Summary
2015 kicks off with an air of optimism. Prices are rising in more regions than might be expected for the time of year and price discounting is at a 4-year low. The current mix-adjusted average asking price for England and Wales shows that properties on the market are valued 7.8% higher than they were in Jan. 2014. The biggest price growth was observed in Greater London over the last month (+0.6%, despite falling prices in Prime Central London). Prices also rose in the North East during the last month (+0.4%), which is encouraging given that the recovery has not yet been evident in the most northerly English region.
The positive momentum gained through the course of 2014 has clearly been carried through into 2015. Demand remains ahead of supply in most parts of the UK and looks set to stay that way as mortgage deals seemingly get better and better. The only dark clouds on the current property horizon would seem to be the alarming price falls in Prime Central London and various potential housing policy changes that will be debated in the run-up to this year's election. Flat prices have fallen by an average of 9% over the last 12 months in Central London. Over the same time, the number of flats for sale in Central London has increased by 64%. We consider that there is a significant risk that the same price correction will be perpetuated throughout Greater London and the South East over the course of 2015/16. Possible changes in property taxes and rent capping also carry uncertainty and risk for the market in a year that will be coloured by political policy change.
Key figures
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Average asking price (England & Wales) | £265,952 |
| Monthly change (England & Wales) | 0.1% |
| Annual change (England & Wales) | 7.8% |
| Total unsold stock (England & Wales) | 458,112 |
| Supply increase (UK) | +4% |
Figures are for England and Wales unless the report states otherwise, as published in the edition.
Charts from the report
Source: Home.co.uk, January 2015
Source: Home.co.uk, January 2015. May 2004 =100
Source: Home.co.uk, January 2015
Source: Home.co.uk, January 2015. Note: Average = Mean (days), Typical = Median (days)
Regional tables
UK Asking Prices, Jan-15
| Region | Average Asking Price | Monthly % change | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | £161,810 | -0.6% | 3.5% |
| North East | £153,563 | 0.4% | 1.6% |
| Yorks & The Humber | £171,312 | 0.0% | 2.1% |
| England & Wales | £265,952 | 0.1% | 7.8% |
| North West | £176,345 | 0.1% | 2.1% |
| West Midlands | £202,759 | 0.2% | 4.1% |
| East Midlands | £193,234 | 0.3% | 5.6% |
| East | £279,929 | -0.8% | 8.3% |
| Wales | £179,543 | 0.2% | 1.4% |
| Greater London | £478,488 | 0.5% | 16.1% |
| South East | £342,770 | -0.1% | 8.2% |
| South West | £279,635 | 0.3% | 5.2% |
UK Time on Market, Jan-15
| Region | Average Time on Market | Typical Time on Market | Annual % supply change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 272 | 156 | 24% |
| North East | 329 | 179 | -2% |
| Yorks & The Humber | 256 | 152 | -6% |
| England & Wales | 214 | 126 | 4% |
| North West | 254 | 154 | 2% |
| West Midlands | 210 | 129 | -3% |
| East Midlands | 198 | 123 | 2% |
| East | 155 | 102 | -1% |
| Wales | 294 | 172 | 4% |
| Greater London | 129 | 91 | 20% |
| South East | 137 | 94 | 11% |
| South West | 183 | 121 | -6% |
From the director's commentary
"Optimism is still riding high in the rest of the country, but it comes as a shock to many to learn that prices are crumbling in the most expensive streets in London. My cab drivers certainly didn't know of this fact during a recent trip to the capital."
Doug Shephard, Director at Home.co.uk
Read the full January 2015 edition (PDF, 6 pages)
About the Home Asking Price Index
The Home Asking Price Index measures the change in the prices sellers ask for residential property across England, Wales and Scotland. Today it is computed every month from around half a million advertised homes and is mix-adjusted, so a change in what happens to be on the market does not move the figure; earlier editions state the sample they were built from. Because an asking price is set months before a sale completes, the index runs around five months ahead of completed-sale measures such as the UK House Price Index.
Every edition in the archive, back to October 2006, is listed on the index page. How we measure the UK property market explains the listing data behind it, and today's figures by area are on house prices and rental prices.
Text and figures above are quoted from the January 2015 edition as published, with punctuation normalised for the web, and are not revised. Later editions may restate them.
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