Home Asking Price Index, February 2017: home prices and supply surge in the East
Asking prices in England and Wales rose 0.6% in the month, with the East of England leading regional growth at 9.9% annually while London prices fell 1.2%.
This is the February 2017 edition of the Home Asking Price Index, released on 14 February 2017, under the headline:
Home Prices and Supply Surge in the East
The headlines and summary below are the report's own words, with the key figures as it published them, followed by the report's charts and regional tables as printed.
Headlines
- Explosive price growth in the East of England (+1.9% MoM) reverses previous falls in December and January and takes the average home price to a new all-time high.
- By contrast, prices hardly moved in Greater London (+0.1% MoM) and have lost 1.2% year-on-year.
- Yorkshire and Humber highlighted as the best yielding region for Buy-to-Let.
- Average home price for England and Wales shows a rise of 0.6% since last month driven chiefly by rises in the East and South East.
- Prices rose in all English regions but fell in both Wales and Scotland this month.
- Typical Time on Market falls to 109 days, five days less than in Feb 2016 (England and Wales).
- The overall rate of annualised home price appreciation for England and Wales has slipped to 3.0% (Feb 17 vs. Feb 16).
- The supply of property entering the UK market dropped unexpectedly by 5% YoY. However, supply has increased in the East and South East by 8% and 4% respectively, compared to February last year.
- Increased Time on Market figures continue to highlight the slowdown in London and the South East compared to February last year.
Summary
In line with seasonal expectations, price rises indicate a spring lift but year-on-year price growth continues to decline. Moreover, a surge in monetary inflation due to a weak pound means that capital values are really going nowhere in real terms. Whilst the London market continues to suffer the consequences of oversupply and overly high prices, it is the East of England that leads the regional league table with stunning price appreciation. Prices there have risen twice as fast as the next best region, the East Midlands, over the last twelve months. Worryingly, supply is also rising in the region and this observation suggests that the East will soon be the next region to endure the same post-boom plight as London and the South East: such rapid growth raises concerns over the sustainability of this rally and home prices are becoming seriously out of step with earnings and rents.
Aside from London, the South East and the East of England, confidence is apparent across all other English regions. Prices are up both month-on-month and year-on-year and, typically, properties are spending less time on the market than they were a year ago. Only Scotland and Wales have shown price declines since January. The strongest monthly rises, aside from the East, were in the South East (0.9%), East Midlands (0.5%) and the North West (0.6%).
Key figures
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Average asking price (England & Wales) | £298,445 |
| Monthly change (England & Wales) | 0.6% |
| Annual change (England & Wales) | 3.0% |
| Typical Time on Market (England & Wales) | 109 days |
| Change in supply of new properties (UK, YoY) | -5% |
| Stock level decline since May 2008 peak | -54% |
| Stock level decline over last five years | -38% |
Figures are for England and Wales unless the report states otherwise, as published in the edition.
Charts from the report
Source: Home.co.uk, February 2017
Source: Home.co.uk, February 2017
Source: Home.co.uk, February 2017
Source: Home.co.uk, February 2017. Note: Average = Mean (days), Typical = Median (days)
Regional tables
UK Asking Prices, Feb-17
| Region | Average Asking Price | Monthly % change | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | £177,037 | -0.3% | 2.3% |
| North East | £154,185 | 0.1% | 0.8% |
| Yorks & The Humber | £179,967 | 0.4% | 2.5% |
| England & Wales | £298,445 | 0.6% | 3.0% |
| North West | £187,776 | 0.6% | 4.1% |
| West Midlands | £225,273 | 0.1% | 4.3% |
| East Midlands | £213,016 | 0.5% | 4.9% |
| East | £348,651 | 1.9% | 9.9% |
| Wales | £184,594 | -0.2% | 1.1% |
| Greater London | £538,548 | 0.1% | -1.2% |
| South East | £395,235 | 0.9% | 3.1% |
| South West | £309,157 | 0.4% | 4.5% |
UK Time on Market, Feb-17
| Region | Average Time on Market | Typical Time on Market | Annual % supply change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 261 | 150 | -12% |
| North East | 253 | 148 | -7% |
| Yorks & The Humber | 201 | 124 | -10% |
| England & Wales | 174 | 109 | -5% |
| North West | 204 | 127 | -9% |
| West Midlands | 161 | 101 | -6% |
| East Midlands | 151 | 95 | -5% |
| East | 118 | 78 | 8% |
| Wales | 248 | 155 | -12% |
| Greater London | 137 | 93 | -5% |
| South East | 118 | 80 | 4% |
| South West | 159 | 104 | -10% |
From the director's commentary
"Home prices have been, are, and always will be underpinned by rents. Yields, be they dividends, interest on capital or rents, are always tied to the underlying investment."
Doug Shephard, Director at Home.co.uk
Read the full February 2017 edition (PDF, 6 pages)
About the Home Asking Price Index
The Home Asking Price Index measures the change in the prices sellers ask for residential property across England, Wales and Scotland. Today it is computed every month from around half a million advertised homes and is mix-adjusted, so a change in what happens to be on the market does not move the figure; earlier editions state the sample they were built from. Because an asking price is set months before a sale completes, the index runs around five months ahead of completed-sale measures such as the UK House Price Index.
Every edition in the archive, back to October 2006, is listed on the index page. How we measure the UK property market explains the listing data behind it, and today's figures by area are on house prices and rental prices.
Text and figures above are quoted from the February 2017 edition as published, with punctuation normalised for the web, and are not revised. Later editions may restate them.
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