Home Asking Price Index, December 2017: sales supply jumps as rental supply falls
New sales instructions rose 11% year on year while rental supply fell 16%, as England and Wales asking prices dropped 0.7% but remained 2.6% higher annually.
This is the December 2017 edition of the Home Asking Price Index, released on 12 December 2017, under the headline:
Sales Supply Jumps as Rental Supply Falls
The headlines and summary below are the report's own words, with the key figures as it published them, followed by the report's charts and regional tables as printed.
Headlines
- The number of new sales instructions has jumped by 11% across the UK while the supply of rental properties has fallen by 16% (Nov 2017 vs. Nov 2016).
- Home prices fell again this month, taking the mix-adjusted average for England and Wales down 0.7% since November but up 2.6% year-on-year (YoY).
- Greater London prices slid for a fifth consecutive month, by 0.3%, pushing the year-on-year change down to -1.0%.
- Outside of London and the South East, strong regional growth continues as the East and West Midlands remain at the top of the table, with annualised gains of 6.4% and 6.0% respectively.
- The North West and Yorkshire have also shown the best price performance for many years, with gains of 4.4% and 4.7% respectively.
- Prices fell in all the English regions and Scotland over the last month, which is consistent with the seasonal expectations, although Wales showed a surprising rise of 0.3% since November, indicating increased strength in the Principality's property market.
- Typical Time on Market for England and Wales has increased to 93 days, two days less than in Dec 2016.
- The total stock of properties on the market in England and Wales nudged up 1% YoY, suggesting that supply is perhaps beginning to outpace overall demand.
Summary
The London slump continues to weigh heavily on the national annualised growth figure. Over the course of most of 2017, this braking effect has been countered by price growth in the country's most vigorous regional property markets (both the East and West Midlands, Yorkshire and the North West). Of course, seasonal expectations come into play at this time of year and month-on-month declines are the norm. In fact, over the last month prices fell in all of the nine English regions and in Scotland but not Wales. However, a worrying observation that is not consistent with seasonal expectations is a significant jump in new listings of property for sale (11%, Nov 2017 vs. Nov 2016).
Key figures
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Monthly change in asking prices | -0.7% |
| Annual change in asking prices | +2.6% |
| Typical Time on Market | 93 days |
| Total unsold stock change | +1% YoY |
| New sales instructions | +11% |
| Rental supply | -16% |
Figures are for England and Wales unless the report states otherwise, as published in the edition.
Charts from the report
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, December 2017
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, December 2017
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, December 2017
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, December 2017
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, December 2017. Note: Average = Mean (days), Typical = Median (days)
Regional tables
UK Asking Prices, Dec-17
| Region | Average Asking Price | Monthly % change | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | £181,464 | -0.5% | 1.1% |
| North East | £155,737 | -0.3% | 1.2% |
| Yorks & The Humber | £187,898 | -0.6% | 4.7% |
| England & Wales | £304,405 | -0.7% | 2.6% |
| North West | £194,304 | -0.7% | 4.4% |
| West Midlands | £237,860 | -0.6% | 6.0% |
| East Midlands | £225,043 | -0.3% | 6.4% |
| East | £356,294 | -1.2% | 3.6% |
| Wales | £191,885 | 0.3% | 3.7% |
| Greater London | £531,503 | -0.3% | -1.0% |
| South East | £400,390 | -1.4% | 2.3% |
| South West | £320,016 | -0.9% | 3.8% |
UK Time on Market, Dec-17
| Region | Average Time on Market | Typical Time on Market | Annual % supply change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 244 | 121 | 4% |
| North East | 239 | 128 | 7% |
| Yorks & The Humber | 181 | 103 | 4% |
| England & Wales | 163 | 93 | 11% |
| North West | 181 | 105 | 9% |
| West Midlands | 144 | 81 | 13% |
| East Midlands | 137 | 80 | 11% |
| East | 118 | 74 | 16% |
| Wales | 240 | 135 | -8% |
| Greater London | 146 | 87 | 13% |
| South East | 122 | 76 | 16% |
| South West | 145 | 86 | 21% |
From the director's commentary
"Of course, this is a vastly 'overcooked' scenario but it serves to make a point. Any sort of BTL exit will tip the market to the downside and the UK government should be monitoring the situation very carefully."
Doug Shephard, Director at Home.co.uk
Read the full December 2017 edition (PDF, 7 pages)
About the Home Asking Price Index
The Home Asking Price Index measures the change in the prices sellers ask for residential property across England, Wales and Scotland. Today it is computed every month from around half a million advertised homes and is mix-adjusted, so a change in what happens to be on the market does not move the figure; earlier editions state the sample they were built from. Because an asking price is set months before a sale completes, the index runs around five months ahead of completed-sale measures such as the UK House Price Index.
Every edition in the archive, back to October 2006, is listed on the index page. How we measure the UK property market explains the listing data behind it, and today's figures by area are on house prices and rental prices.
Text and figures above are quoted from the December 2017 edition as published, with punctuation normalised for the web, and are not revised. Later editions may restate them.
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