Home Asking Price Index, December 2016: London prices fall as supply leaps in the East and South
UK asking prices slowed further in December 2016, with London posting its first annual price fall in six years and supply rising sharply in the South East and East.
This is the December 2016 edition of the Home Asking Price Index, released on 13 December 2016, under the headline:
London Prices Fall as Supply Leaps in the East and South
The headlines and summary below are the report's own words, with the key figures as it published them, followed by the report's charts and regional tables as printed.
Headlines
- Greater London remains the UK's worst performing region with prices falling 0.4% over the last twelve months.
- Supply of property for sale continues to increase rapidly in the key regions of London (+19%), East of England (+30%) and the South East (+27%) (Nov 16 vs. Nov 15).
- Average home price for England and Wales suffers biggest monthly fall in two years.
- Prices fell in every English region, Wales and Scotland this month.
- Worst drop was in the South East of England: 0.8% in just one month.
- Typical Time on Market edges up three days to 95 days over the last month across England and Wales: nine days less than in December 2015.
- The overall rate of home price appreciation for England and Wales slips to 3.4% (Dec 16 vs. Dec 15).
- The total stock of property on the market in England and Wales has again dropped back a little since last month but is 1.7% more than in December last year.
Summary
Price growth in the UK property market continues to diminish. All regions registered average home price declines this month, with the worst fall being in the South East (0.8%). Whilst a seasonal dip is expected at this time of year, it is the year-on-year figures that indicate a growing malaise in the property market.
In December 2015, the annualised rate of increase in home prices was 8.0%; today the same measure is a mere 3.6% and the trend is clearly to the downside. Ahead of the curve is London, where year-on-year growth is negative for the first time in six years.
The same slowdown that hit London is rippling out to the South East and East of England. Supply of homes for sale has risen very rapidly in both regions and we expect that this will soon impact negatively on marketing times and later on prices. In fact, the Typical Time on Market is already creeping up in the South East and price growth has dropped to just 3.2% (cf. 10.6% in Dec 2015).
Editor's note: this edition gives the annual rate of home price growth as 3.6% in its summary and as 3.4% in its headline and regional table. Both are quoted as printed.
Key figures
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Average asking price (England & Wales) | £296,609 |
| Monthly change (England & Wales) | -0.4% |
| Annual change (England & Wales) | 3.4% |
| Typical Time on Market (England & Wales) | 95 days |
| Annual change in total stock (England & Wales) | +1.7% |
Figures are for England and Wales unless the report states otherwise, as published in the edition.
Charts from the report
Source: Home.co.uk, December 2016
Source: Home.co.uk, December 2016
Source: Home.co.uk, December 2016
Source: Home.co.uk, December 2016
Source: Home.co.uk, December 2016. Note: Average = Mean (days), Typical = Median (days)
Regional tables
UK Asking Prices, Dec-16
| Region | Average Asking Price | Monthly % change | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | £179,511 | -0.3% | 5.4% |
| North East | £153,813 | -0.5% | 0.5% |
| Yorks & The Humber | £179,497 | -0.6% | 2.3% |
| England & Wales | £296,609 | -0.4% | 3.4% |
| North West | £186,088 | -0.3% | 3.7% |
| West Midlands | £224,452 | -0.7% | 5.4% |
| East Midlands | £211,460 | 0.0% | 5.3% |
| East | £344,007 | -0.3% | 10.6% |
| Wales | £184,975 | -0.7% | 0.6% |
| Greater London | £536,909 | -0.1% | -0.4% |
| South East | £391,391 | -0.8% | 3.2% |
| South West | £308,213 | -0.3% | 5.0% |
UK Time on Market, Dec-16
| Region | Average Time on Market | Typical Time on Market | Annual % supply change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 236 | 124 | 13% |
| North East | 243 | 134 | 1% |
| Yorks & The Humber | 194 | 112 | 7% |
| England & Wales | 168 | 95 | 13% |
| North West | 197 | 115 | 3% |
| West Midlands | 158 | 90 | 5% |
| East Midlands | 149 | 87 | 9% |
| East | 114 | 70 | 30% |
| Wales | 236 | 141 | 5% |
| Greater London | 130 | 80 | 19% |
| South East | 112 | 71 | 27% |
| South West | 155 | 94 | 7% |
From the director's commentary
"It is arguable that these three regions together have served as the key growth engine for the UK property market (in fact, they constitute more than 40% of the housing stock and much more than that by value). Should the fate of the South East and East of England markets be to follow the pattern set by London, 2017 will be a difficult year and may even herald a very different chapter in the story of the UK property market."
Doug Shephard, Director at Home.co.uk
Read the full December 2016 edition (PDF, 6 pages)
About the Home Asking Price Index
The Home Asking Price Index measures the change in the prices sellers ask for residential property across England, Wales and Scotland. Today it is computed every month from around half a million advertised homes and is mix-adjusted, so a change in what happens to be on the market does not move the figure; earlier editions state the sample they were built from. Because an asking price is set months before a sale completes, the index runs around five months ahead of completed-sale measures such as the UK House Price Index.
Every edition in the archive, back to October 2006, is listed on the index page. How we measure the UK property market explains the listing data behind it, and today's figures by area are on house prices and rental prices.
Text and figures above are quoted from the December 2016 edition as published, with punctuation normalised for the web, and are not revised. Later editions may restate them.
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