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Home Asking Price Index, August 2022: all indicators suggest return to more normal market conditions
Asking prices across England and Wales stayed flat in August, with annual growth at 5.2% and Typical Time on Market falling to 65 days.
- Annual price change
- 5.2%
- Typical Time on Market
- 65 days
- Supply change year-on-year
- 9%
- Monetary inflation (RPI ex. housing)
- 13.6%
In this article
This is the August 2022 edition of the Home Asking Price Index, released on 12 August 2022, under the headline:
All Indicators Suggest Return to More Normal Market Conditions
The headlines and summary below are the report's own words, with the key figures as it published them, followed by the report's charts and regional tables as printed.
Headlines
- Asking prices across England and Wales show no change overall since July, bringing the year-on-year rise to 5.2%, consistent with seasonal expectations.
- The total stock of property for sale in England and Wales continues to increase but remains a long way short of what might be considered normal. The stock total has been in a rising trend since the all-time low registered in January 2022.
- Typical Time on Market (median) for unsold property is 65 days, which is 12 days less than in August 2021, indicating that properties continue to move through the market at a near-record pace.
- Supply is up year-on-year, suggesting that record prices are tempting more vendors to commit. Nine per cent more properties were placed on the market last month compared to July 2021. Only Greater London showed no increase in supply, while the largest increase was found in the South West (up 17%).
- The South West property market now leads in annualised regional price growth (+8.7%), ahead of the previous leader, Wales (+8.4%).
- Meanwhile, monetary inflation increased further to 13.6% (RPI ex. housing), making real growth around -7.1% year-on-year and the real mortgage interest rate around -11%.
- Greater London rent hikes continue. Demand continues to overwhelm a falling supply of available properties, pushing annualised rental growth to an astonishing 25.9%.
- Central London rents have risen the fastest over the last twelve months, led by Tower Hamlets (+41%), Southwark (+39%) and Merton (+38%) boroughs.
- Asking rent growth across the UK currently stands at 20.5% year-on-year as rents rise in every English region, Scotland and Wales.
Summary
Thus far, the UK property market has seemingly brushed aside the recent rise in the cost of mortgage lending and shows no major sign of a slowdown. Seasonality indicates that prices typically peak in July and this is consistent with more normal market conditions.
Typical Time on Market has been edging up from the record low set in April but remains very low by historic standards. Stock levels are also recovering from an acute record low set in January 2022 but remain much lower than the 5-year average. Monthly supply of new instructions shows an increase of 9% overall as record prices encourage more vendors, with the greatest increase being in the South West (where prices have risen the most over the last 12 months).
Thus, the expected recovery in sales stock is steadily occurring, along with a return to more normal market conditions following the buying frenzy last year that was triggered by artificial stimuli, but the same cannot be said of the rental sector. In fact, the number of properties available for rent is in decline overall (down 27% over the last 12 months). This is due mainly to the steep decline in Greater London which is down by 51% over the same period. The effect of this lettings drought on Greater London rents is plain to be seen with annualised hikes averaging 25.9%, but much higher than that in the more central boroughs.
Key figures
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Annual price change | 5.2% |
| Typical Time on Market | 65 days |
| Supply change year-on-year | 9% |
| Monetary inflation (RPI ex. housing) | 13.6% |
| Real price growth | -7.1% |
| Real mortgage interest rate | -11% |
| UK asking rent growth | 20.5% |
Figures are for England and Wales unless the report states otherwise, as published in the edition.
Charts from the report
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, August 2022, Indexed to May 2004 (Value=100).
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, August 2022
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, August 2022
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, August 2022
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, August 2022
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, August 2022. Average = Mean (days), Typical = Median (days).
Regional tables
UK Asking Prices, Aug-22
| Region | Average Asking Price | Monthly % change | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | £214,756 | -0.9% | 2.1% |
| North East | £185,924 | -0.4% | 4.5% |
| Yorks & The Humber | £244,749 | -0.2% | 5.7% |
| England & Wales | £361,262 | 0.0% | 5.2% |
| North West | £257,436 | 0.3% | 8.2% |
| West Midlands | £305,321 | 0.5% | 6.7% |
| East Midlands | £289,801 | 0.0% | 7.1% |
| East | £413,109 | -0.3% | 5.1% |
| Wales | £265,717 | 0.2% | 8.4% |
| Greater London | £561,916 | -0.2% | 2.3% |
| South East | £456,946 | -0.1% | 3.5% |
| South West | £393,205 | -0.1% | 8.7% |
UK Time on Market, Aug-22
| Region | Average Time on Market | Typical Time on Market | Annual % supply change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 202 | 52 | 4% |
| North East | 143 | 56 | 6% |
| Yorks & The Humber | 119 | 51 | 9% |
| England & Wales | 149 | 65 | |
| North West | 142 | 63 | 7% |
| West Midlands | 136 | 55 | 10% |
| East Midlands | 103 | 50 | 13% |
| East | 127 | 56 | 10% |
| Wales | 137 | 57 | 11% |
| Greater London | 190 | 84 | 0% |
| South East | 136 | 57 | 12% |
| South West | 126 | 53 | 17% |
The report also prints '2 year % supply change' in 1 of its 12 region boxes (England & Wales 9%), so it is not a column of this table.
From the director's commentary
"Property is still looking like a good bet in an increasingly uncertain world, especially when we consider that real interest rates are highly negative, which means that inflation will erode the outstanding mortgage debt. I simply can't make this point more strongly."
Doug Shephard, Director at Home.co.uk
Read the full August 2022 edition (PDF, 9 pages)
About the Home Asking Price Index
The Home Asking Price Index measures the change in the prices sellers ask for residential property across England, Wales and Scotland. Today it is computed every month from around half a million advertised homes and is mix-adjusted, so a change in what happens to be on the market does not move the figure; earlier editions state the sample they were built from. Because an asking price is set months before a sale completes, the index runs around five months ahead of completed-sale measures such as the UK House Price Index.
Every edition in the archive, back to October 2006, is listed on the index page. How we measure the UK property market explains the listing data behind it, and today's figures by area are on house prices and rental prices.
Text and figures above are quoted from the August 2022 edition as published, with punctuation normalised for the web, and are not revised. Later editions may restate them.
