Home Asking Price Index, April 2018: oversupply exacerbates London and South East downturn
England and Wales asking prices edged up 0.2% this month, while London and the South East saw falling prices amid rising oversupply and longer marketing times.
This is the April 2018 edition of the Home Asking Price Index, released on 12 April 2018, under the headline:
Oversupply Exacerbates London and South East Downturn
The headlines and summary below are the report's own words, with the key figures as it published them, followed by the report's charts and regional tables as printed.
Headlines
- London and South East prices slide again.
- Strong price growth in the North West, South West, West Midlands and Yorkshire since last month.
- Huge supply surges in the East (17%) and South East (16%) of England.
- Typical Time on Market rising fast in London (+15%), the South East (+18%) and East (+17%) year-on-year.
- Home prices nudged up by 0.2% this month, making the mix-adjusted average growth for England and Wales a mere 1.3% year-on-year (YoY).
- Prices have risen in all English regions, Scotland and Wales since last month, with the exception of London, the North East and the South East.
- Typical Time on Market for England and Wales has dropped back to 78 days, two days less than in Apr 2017.
- The total stock of properties on the market in England and Wales is up again, this time by 6.5% YoY.
Summary
Home prices may have nudged up this month across England and Wales but red warning lights are flashing as market conditions in London and the South East deteriorate. Prices continue to slide and marketing times are rising but, most worrying of all, is that the supply of property for sale has risen to near 7-year highs in both regions, and this rising trend shows no signs of abating. In stark contrast, Wales, the East Midlands, West Midlands, the North West and Yorkshire have thriving property markets.
The reversal of fortunes continues for Britain's bipolar property market. Oversupply threatens to tip downturn into disaster in the already hamstrung markets in Greater London and the South East. The psychology of property market downturns is well documented and buyer sentiment may be summarised by the phrase 'Who wants to catch a falling knife?' Moreover, the East of England looks set to follow the same path as supply rises rapidly, marketing times lengthen and price growth falls further below the level of inflation.
Key figures
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Monthly price change | +0.2% |
| Annual price change (YoY) | 1.3% |
| Typical Time on Market | 78 days |
| Total stock change (YoY) | +6.5% |
| UK supply change (YoY) | +8% |
Figures are for England and Wales unless the report states otherwise, as published in the edition.
Charts from the report
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, April 2018
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, April 2018
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, April 2018
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, April 2018
Source: Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, April 2018. Note: Average = Mean (days), Typical = Median (days)
Regional tables
UK Asking Prices, Apr-18
| Region | Average Asking Price | Monthly % change | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | £181,849 | 0.2% | 1.4% |
| North East | £157,311 | 0.0% | 1.9% |
| Yorks & The Humber | £191,935 | 0.6% | 4.1% |
| England & Wales | £306,724 | 0.2% | 1.3% |
| North West | £198,082 | 0.7% | 4.2% |
| West Midlands | £240,211 | 0.6% | 4.8% |
| East Midlands | £228,974 | 0.3% | 5.3% |
| East | £360,418 | 0.2% | 1.5% |
| Wales | £196,561 | 1.0% | 5.1% |
| Greater London | £531,337 | -0.1% | -2.3% |
| South East | £399,315 | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| South West | £323,129 | 0.6% | 2.8% |
UK Time on Market, Apr-18
| Region | Average Time on Market | Typical Time on Market | Annual % supply change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 242 | 125 | -2% |
| North East | 236 | 130 | -4% |
| Yorks & The Humber | 178 | 88 | 1% |
| England & Wales | 161 | 78 | 8% |
| North West | 176 | 89 | 3% |
| West Midlands | 146 | 67 | 7% |
| East Midlands | 135 | 66 | 8% |
| East | 117 | 63 | 17% |
| Wales | 236 | 138 | -3% |
| Greater London | 149 | 77 | 5% |
| South East | 123 | 66 | 16% |
| South West | 140 | 69 | 14% |
From the director's commentary
"With the way the property market is looking right now, never mind the overall economy, any sort of move to raise interest rates would be an act of madness. There may perhaps have been an opportunity to do so (e.g. before the London bubble grew too big) but now is certainly not the time."
Doug Shephard, Director at Home.co.uk
Read the full April 2018 edition (PDF, 7 pages)
About the Home Asking Price Index
The Home Asking Price Index measures the change in the prices sellers ask for residential property across England, Wales and Scotland. Today it is computed every month from around half a million advertised homes and is mix-adjusted, so a change in what happens to be on the market does not move the figure; earlier editions state the sample they were built from. Because an asking price is set months before a sale completes, the index runs around five months ahead of completed-sale measures such as the UK House Price Index.
Every edition in the archive, back to October 2006, is listed on the index page. How we measure the UK property market explains the listing data behind it, and today's figures by area are on house prices and rental prices.
Text and figures above are quoted from the April 2018 edition as published, with punctuation normalised for the web, and are not revised. Later editions may restate them.
More in What is happening to house prices: the Home guide
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